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Process Monitoring involves tracking a system's behaviors, evaluating the current state of the system, and discovering interesting events that require immediate actions. In this paper, we consider monitoring temporal system state sequences…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-11 Yihuang Kang , Vladimir Zadorozhny

In this paper we consider the statistics of repeated measurements on the output of a quantum Markov chain. We establish a large deviations result analogous to Sanov's theorem for the empirical measure associated to finite sequences of…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-06-22 Merlijn van Horssen , Madalin Guta

In this paper, we study a notion of local stationarity for discrete time Markov chains which is useful for applications in statistics. In the spirit of some locally stationary processes introduced in the literature, we consider triangular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-06 Lionel Truquet

Motivated by applications in telecommunications, computer scienceand physics, we consider a discrete-time Markov process withrestart. At each step the process eitherwith a positive probability restarts from a given distribution, orwith the…

Performance · Computer Science 2017-03-13 Konstantin Avrachenkov , Alexey Piunovskiy , Yi Zhang

Bisimulation is a concept that captures behavioural equivalence. It has been studied extensively on nonprobabilistic systems and on discrete-time Markov processes and on so-called continuous-time Markov chains. In the latter time is…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-01-31 Linan Chen , Florence Clerc , Prakash Panangaden

This paper addresses the problem of risk-aware fixed-time stabilization of a class of uncertain, output-feedback nonlinear systems modeled via stochastic differential equations. First, novel classes of certificate functions, namely…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-01 Mitchell Black , Georgios Fainekos , Bardh Hoxha , Dimitra Panagou

We introduce a novel framework to account for sensitivity to rewards uncertainty in sequential decision-making problems. While risk-sensitive formulations for Markov decision processes studied so far focus on the distribution of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-16 Nelson Vadori , Sumitra Ganesh , Prashant Reddy , Manuela Veloso

The notion of a successful coupling of Markov processes, based on the idea that both components of the coupled system ``intersect'' in finite time with probability one, is extended to cover situations when the coupling is unnecessarily…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Michael Blank , Sergey Pirogov

This paper gives an overview of the theory of dynamic convex risk measures for random variables in discrete time setting. We summarize robust representation results of conditional convex risk measures, and we characterize various time…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2010-02-22 Beatrice Acciaio , Irina Penner

Stochastic domains often involve risk-averse decision makers. While recent work has focused on how to model risk in Markov decision processes using risk measures, it has not addressed the problem of solving large risk-averse formulations.…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-19 Marek Petrik , Dharmashankar Subramanian

We consider a family of Markov chains whose transition dynamics are affected by model parameters. Understanding the parametric dependence of (complex) performance measures of such Markov chains is often of significant interest. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-14 Chang-Han Rhee , Peter Glynn

When two Markov operators commute, it suggests that we can couple two copies of one of the corresponding processes. We explicitly construct a number of couplings of this type for a commuting family of Markov processes on the set of…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-11-20 Anthony P. Metcalfe , Neil O'Connell , Jon Warren

Rate processes are simple and analytically tractable models for many dynamical systems which switch stochastically between a discrete set of quasi stationary states but they may also approximate continuous processes by coarse grained,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-03-11 R. Toenjes , H. Kori

To determine the effect of nonradiative excitation energy transfer on the fluorescence of a rigid multicomponent solution, a new analytical method was developed by treating this transfer as a time-resolved Markov chain (TRMC). In the TRMC…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-09-16 Józef Kuśba

This paper concerns sequential computation of risk measures for financial data and asks how, given a risk measurement procedure, we can tell whether the answers it produces are `correct'. We draw the distinction between `external' and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-11-20 Mark H. A. Davis

We consider statistical Markov Decision Processes where the decision maker is risk averse against model ambiguity. The latter is given by an unknown parameter which influences the transition law and the cost functions. Risk aversion is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Nicole Bäuerle , Ulrich Rieder

Continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are popular modeling formalism that constitutes the underlying semantics for real-time probabilistic systems such as queuing networks, stochastic process algebras, and calculi for systems biology. Prism…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-20 Giovanni Bacci , Anna Ingólfsdóttir , Kim G. Larsen , Raphaël Reynouard

In this paper, which is a continuation of the previously published discrete time paper we develop a theory for continuous time stochastic control problems which, in various ways, are time inconsistent in the sense that they do not admit a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-12-13 Tomas Björk , Mariana Khapko , Agatha Murgoci

We study a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but each process has potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-01 Alexandre Belloni , Roberto I. Oliveira

A method is proposed to reconstruct a cyclic time-inhomogeneous Markov pro- cess from measured data. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov model is fit to the data, taken here from measurements on a wind turbine. From the time-dependent…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-06-16 Teresa Scholz , Vitor V. Lopes , Pedro Lind , Frank Raischel