Related papers: Markov Chain Monte Carlo with the Integrated Neste…
Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…
This work has been motivated by the challenge of the 2017 conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017), with the goal of predicting daily precipitation quantiles at the $99.8\%$ level for each month at observed and unobserved locations.…
We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to perform state inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. Current state-of-the-art methods to address this problem rely on particle MCMC techniques and its variants, such…
Latent position network models are a versatile tool in network science; applications include clustering entities, controlling for causal confounders, and defining priors over unobserved graphs. Estimating each node's latent position is…
This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…
In lattice quantum field theory studies, parameters defining the lattice theory must be tuned toward criticality to access continuum physics. Commonly used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods suffer from critical slowing down in this…
We present a new framework to derandomise certain Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. As in MCMC, we first reduce counting problems to sampling from a sequence of marginal distributions. For the latter task, we introduce a method…
Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically…
We introduce Projected Latent Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PL-MCMC), a technique for sampling from the high-dimensional conditional distributions learned by a normalizing flow. We prove that a Metropolis-Hastings implementation of PL-MCMC…
Regression models for circular variables are less developed, since the concept of building a linear predictor from linear combinations of covariates and various random effects, breaks the circular nature of the variable. In this paper, we…
We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…
We present a sequential Monte Carlo sampler algorithm for the Bayesian analysis of generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs). These models support a variety of interesting regression-type analyses, but performing inference is often extremely…
Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…
Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…
Bayesian modelling and computational inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a principled framework for large-scale uncertainty quantification, though is limited in practice by computational cost when implemented in the simplest…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), such as Langevin dynamics, is valid for approximating intractable distributions. However, its usage is limited in the context of deep latent variable models owing to costly datapoint-wise sampling iterations…
The expressive power of a Gaussian process (GP) model comes at a cost of poor scalability in the data size. To improve its scalability, this paper presents a low-rank-cum-Markov approximation (LMA) of the GP model that is novel in…
We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…
We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…
In this paper, we present a novel approach to fitting mixture models based on estimating first the posterior distribution of the auxiliary variables that assign each observation to a group in the mixture. The posterior distributions of the…