Related papers: Adaptive posterior convergence rates in non-linear…
In this work, we investigate the estimation of a parameter $f$ in PDEs using Bayesian procedures, and focus on posterior distributions constructed using Gaussian process priors, and its variational approximation. We establish contraction…
Variational autoencoders model high-dimensional data by positing low-dimensional latent variables that are mapped through a flexible distribution parametrized by a neural network. Unfortunately, variational autoencoders often suffer from…
Based on a novel dynamic Whittle likelihood approximation for locally stationary processes, a Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating the time-varying spectral density is proposed. This dynamic frequency-domain based likelihood…
Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…
This paper considers the posterior contraction of non-parametric Bayesian inference on non-homogeneous Poisson processes. We consider the quality of inference on a rate function $\lambda$, given non-identically distributed realisations,…
Shape restrictions such as monotonicity on functions often arise naturally in statistical modeling. We consider a Bayesian approach to the problem of estimation of a monotone regression function and testing for monotonicity. We construct a…
Additive models belong to the class of structured nonparametric regression models that do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Finding the additive components that are nonzero when the true model is assumed to be sparse is an…
Predictive recursion (PR) is a fast algorithm for nonparametric estimation of a mixing density, with connections to sequential Bayesian updating under a Dirichlet process prior and rigorous frequentist consistency guarantees. Extending PR…
We consider nonparametric Bayesian inference in a reflected diffusion model $dX_t = b (X_t)dt + \sigma(X_t) dW_t,$ with discretely sampled observations $X_0, X_\Delta, \dots, X_{n\Delta}$. We analyse the nonlinear inverse problem…
We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…
In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian inference method for a high-dimensional sparse factor model that allows both the factor dimensionality and the sparse structure of the loading matrix to be inferred. The novelty is to introduce a…
We consider a family of infinite dimensional product measures with tails between Gaussian and exponential, which we call $p$-exponential measures. We study their measure-theoretic properties and in particular their concentration. Our…
Each training step for a variational autoencoder (VAE) requires us to sample from the approximate posterior, so we usually choose simple (e.g. factorised) approximate posteriors in which sampling is an efficient computation that fully…
Building on ideas from Castillo and Nickl [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 1999-2028], a method is provided to study nonparametric Bayesian posterior convergence rates when "strong" measures of distances, such as the sup-norm, are considered. In…
We introduce a novel Bayesian estimator for the class proportion in an unlabeled dataset, based on the targeted learning framework. Our procedure requires the specification of a prior (and outputs a posterior) only for the target of…
The construction and theoretical analysis of the most popular universally consistent nonparametric density estimators hinge on one functional property: smoothness. In this paper we investigate the theoretical implications of incorporating a…
There is wide interest in studying how the distribution of a continuous response changes with a predictor. We are motivated by environmental applications in which the predictor is the dose of an exposure and the response is a health…
We present a structured additive regression approach to model conditional densities given scalar covariates, where only samples of the conditional distributions are observed. This links our approach to distributional regression models for…
We introduce a nonparametric prior on the conditional distribution of a (univariate or multivariate) response given a set of predictors. The prior is constructed in the form of a two-stage generative procedure, which in the first stage…
We propose a Machine Learning approach for optimal macroeconomic density forecasting in a high-dimensional setting where the underlying model exhibits a known group structure. Our approach is general enough to encompass specific forecasting…