Related papers: Trends in U. S. Storminess 1949--2009
AI weather foundation models now achieve forecast skill comparable to numerical weather prediction at far lower computational cost, yet their predictability for high-impact extremes across dynamical regimes remains uncertain. We evaluate…
With the development of the Internet, social media has become an important channel for posting disaster-related information. Analyzing attitudes hidden in these texts, known as sentiment analysis, is crucial for the government or relief…
If climate stationarity is dead, how should engineering design standards be modified to account for potential changes in extreme precipitation? Many standards rely on precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves provided in…
Structures with heavy-tailed distributions of disorder occur widely in nature. The evolution of such systems, as in foraging for food or the occurrence of earthquakes is generally analyzed in terms of an incoherent series of events. But the…
A storm is a type of extreme weather. Therefore, forecasting the path of a storm is extremely important for protecting human life and property. However, storm forecasting is very challenging because storm trajectories frequently change. In…
We conduct the largest ever investigation into the relationship between meteorological conditions and the sentiment of human expressions. To do this, we employ over three and a half billion social media posts from tens of millions of…
Sequential tropical cyclone hazards--two tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall in the same region within a short time--are becoming increasingly likely. This study investigates situational preparedness dynamics for six sequential TC…
Developing methods to predict disastrous natural phenomena is more important than ever, and tornadoes are among the most dangerous ones in nature. Due to the unpredictability of the weather, counteracting them is not an easy task and today…
Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack…
The paper presents improved mathematical models and methods for statistical regularities in the behavior of some important characteristics of precipitation: duration of a wet period, maximum daily and total precipitation volumes within a…
Tropical regions may experience periodic extreme precipitation and suffer from associated periodic deluges in a warmer climate. Recent studies conducted small-domain (around 100 km x 100 km) atmospheric model simulations and found that…
Extreme space weather events on Earth occur during intervals of strong solar wind driving. The solar wind drives plasma convection and currents in the near-Earth space environment. For low values of the driver, the Earth's response is…
[Abridged] This paper describes the creation of HadISD: an automatically quality-controlled synoptic resolution dataset of temperature, dewpoint temperature, sea-level pressure, wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover from global weather…
In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then.…
Time scales of turbulent strain activity, denoted as the strain persistence times of first and second order, are obtained from time-dependent expectation values and correlation functions of lagrangian rate-of-strain eigenvalues taken in…
In the spirit of Richardson's original (1948) study of the statistics of deadly conflicts, we study the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks worldwide since 1968. We show that these events are uniformly characterized by the…
We present a stochastic mean-reverting jump-diffusion model to simulate rainfall time series and validate it using long-term half-hourly rain fall data from the North-East region of India. The model captures the intermittent and…
We consider the problem of predicting power outages in an electrical power grid due to hazards produced by convective storms. These storms produce extreme weather phenomena such as intense wind, tornadoes and lightning over a small area. In…
Many astronomical phenomena, including Fast Radio Bursts and Soft Gamma Repeaters, consist of brief, separated, seemingly aperiodic events. The intervals between these events vary randomly, but there are epochs of greater activity, with…
The resilience of internet service is crucial for ensuring consistent communication, facilitating emergency response in digitally-dependent society. Due to empirical data constraints, there has been limited research on internet service…