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We give a method for proactively identifying small, plausible shifts in distribution which lead to large differences in model performance. These shifts are defined via parametric changes in the causal mechanisms of observed variables, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Nikolaj Thams , Michael Oberst , David Sontag

The gist of the quickest change-point detection problem is to detect the presence of a change in the statistical behavior of a series of sequentially made observations, and do so in an optimal detection-speed-vs.-"false-positive"-risk…

Computation · Statistics 2015-04-21 Wenyu Du , Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Grigory Sokolov

In multiple change-point problems, different data segments often follow different distributions, for which the changes may occur in the mean, scale or the entire distribution from one segment to another. Without the need to know the number…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-29 Changliang Zou , Guosheng Yin , Long Feng , Zhaojun Wang

Distribution shifts are ubiquitous in real-world machine learning applications, posing a challenge to the generalization of models trained on one data distribution to another. We focus on scenarios where data distributions vary across…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Steven Wilkins-Reeves , Xu Chen , Qi Ma , Christine Agarwal , Aude Hofleitner

The distributionally robust Markov Decision Process (MDP) approach asks for a distributionally robust policy that achieves the maximal expected total reward under the most adversarial distribution of uncertain parameters. In this paper, we…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-10-10 Zhi Chen , Pengqian Yu , William B. Haskell

We propose a distributionally robust approach to learning hyperparameters for first-order methods in convex optimization. Given a dataset of problem instances, we minimize a Wasserstein distributionally robust version of the performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Vinit Ranjan , Jisun Park , Bartolomeo Stellato

Sequential change-point detection when the distribution parameters are unknown is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. When the post-change parameters are unknown, we consider a set of detection procedures based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-06 Yang Cao , Liyan Xie , Yao Xie , Huan Xu

The problem of quickest detection of a change in the distribution of a sequence of random variables is studied. The objective is to detect the change with the minimum possible delay, subject to constraints on the rate of false alarms and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-31 Yingze Hou , Hoda Bidkhori , Taposh Banerjee

This paper focuses on the distributed optimization of stochastic saddle point problems. The first part of the paper is devoted to lower bounds for the centralized and decentralized distributed methods for smooth (strongly) convex-(strongly)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Aleksandr Beznosikov , Valentin Samokhin , Alexander Gasnikov

We propose and analyze algorithms for distributionally robust optimization of convex losses with conditional value at risk (CVaR) and $\chi^2$ divergence uncertainty sets. We prove that our algorithms require a number of gradient…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-14 Daniel Levy , Yair Carmon , John C. Duchi , Aaron Sidford

In this paper, the problem of quickly detecting an abrupt change on a stochastic process under Bayesian framework is considered. Different from the classic Bayesian quickest change-point detection problem, this paper considers the case…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-24 Jun Geng , Erhan Bayraktar , Lifeng Lai

Robust change-point detection for large-scale data streams has many real-world applications in industrial quality control, signal detection, biosurveillance. Unfortunately, it is highly non-trivial to develop efficient schemes due to three…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-18 Ruizhi Zhang , Yajun Mei , Jianjun Shi

We propose a quickest change detection problem over sensor networks where both the subset of sensors undergoing a change and the local post-change distributions are unknown. Each sensor in the network observes a local discrete time random…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-11 Deniz Sargun , C. Emre Koksal

We consider change-point estimation in a sequence of high-dimensional signals given noisy observations. Classical approaches to this problem such as the filtered derivative method are useful for sequences of scalar-valued signals, but they…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-08 Yong Sheng Soh , Venkat Chandrasekaran

We develop and analyze algorithms for distributionally robust optimization (DRO) of convex losses. In particular, we consider group-structured and bounded $f$-divergence uncertainty sets. Our approach relies on an accelerated method that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-25 Yair Carmon , Danielle Hausler

This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-09 Zifeng Zhao , Ting Fung Ma , Wai Leong Ng , Chun Yip Yau

We study multistage distributionally robust linear optimization, where the uncertainty set is defined as a ball of distribution centered at a scenario tree using the nested distance. The resulting minimax problem is notoriously difficult to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-24 Rui Gao , Rohit Arora , Yizhe Huang

We consider the quickest change detection problem where both the parameters of pre- and post- change distributions are unknown, which prevents the use of classical simple hypothesis testing. Without additional assumptions, optimal solutions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Firas Jarboui , Viannet Perchet

This paper examines the joint problem of detection and identification of a sudden and unobservable change in the probability distribution function (pdf) of a sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables to…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2009-04-16 Savas Dayanik , Christian Goulding , H. Vincent Poor

Since the work of Page in the 1950s, the problem of detecting an abrupt change in the distribution of stochastic processes has received a great deal of attention. In particular, a deep connection has been established between Lorden's…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-23 José E. Figueroa-López , Sveinn Ólafsson