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We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions if the model is misspecified. Given a prior distribution and a random sample from a distribution $P_0$, which may not be in the support of the prior, we show that the posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 B. J. K. Kleijn , A. W. van der Vaart

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Yunwen Yang , Xuming He

In Bayesian hypothesis testing and model selection, prior distributions must be chosen carefully. For example, setting arbitrarily large prior scales for location parameters, which is common practice in estimation problems, can lead to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-25 Víctor Peña , James O. Berger

We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 Mario Beraha , Jim E. Griffin

The predictive Bayesian view involves eliciting a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions in lieu of specifying a likelihood function and prior distribution. Recent methods have leveraged predictive distributions which are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Yiu Yin Yung , Stephen M. S. Lee , Edwin Fong

In this paper we consider the problem of inference in statistical models characterized by moment restrictions by casting the problem within the Exponentially Tilted Empirical Likelihood (ETEL) framework. Because the ETEL function has a well…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-10 Siddhartha Chib , Minchul Shin , Anna Simoni

In the theory of algorithmic randomness, several notions of random sequence are defined via a game-theoretic approach, and the notions that received most attention are perhaps Martin-Loef randomness and computable randomness. The latter…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2009-07-15 Laurent Bienvenu , Rupert Hoelzl , Thorsten Kraling , Wolfgang Merkle

Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-13 Yichen Cheng , Yichuan Zhao

The definition of conditional probability in case of continuous distributions was an important step in the development of mathematical theory of probabilities. How can we define this notion in algorithmic probability theory? In this survey…

Logic · Mathematics 2016-07-15 Bruno Bauwens , Alexander Shen , Hayato Takahashi

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for tackling complex regression and classification tasks, yet its success often hinges on the quality of training data. This study introduces an ML paradigm inspired by domain knowledge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-10 Mohsen Rashki

When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the parameters given the data. Some might worry that conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Alex Yan , Cathal Mills , Augustin Marignier , Younjung Kim , Ben Lambert

Despite the recent successes of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) in AI applications, PPLs offer only limited support for random variables whose distributions combine discrete and continuous elements. We develop the notion of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-06-11 Yi Wu , Siddharth Srivastava , Nicholas Hay , Simon Du , Stuart Russell

We consider the problem of estimating a random state vector when there is information about the maximum distances between its subvectors. The estimation problem is posed in a Bayesian framework in which the minimum mean square error (MMSE)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-30 Dave Zachariah , Isaac Skog , Magnus Jansson , Peter Händel

We study system design problems stated as parameterized stochastic programs with a chance-constraint set. We adopt a Bayesian approach that requires the computation of a posterior predictive integral which is usually intractable. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-07 Prateek Jaiswal , Harsha Honnappa , Vinayak A. Rao

We introduce a notion of computable randomness for infinite sequences that generalises the classical version in two important ways. First, our definition of computable randomness is associated with imprecise probability models, in the sense…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Floris Persiau , Jasper De Bock , Gert de Cooman

The spatial linear mixed model (SLMM) consists of fixed and spatial random effects that may be linearly dependent. Partially motivated as a means to address potential issues with confounding, the Restricted spatial regression (RSR) model…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Jonathan R. Bradley

How do we compare between hypotheses that are entirely consistent with observations? The marginal likelihood (aka Bayesian evidence), which represents the probability of generating our observations from a prior, provides a distinctive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Sanae Lotfi , Pavel Izmailov , Gregory Benton , Micah Goldblum , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Consider the Gaussian sequence model under the additional assumption that a fixed fraction of the means is known. We study the problem of variance estimation from a frequentist Bayesian perspective. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-19 Gianluca Finocchio , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit probabilistic output characteristics, yet conventional evaluation frameworks rely on deterministic scalar metrics. This study introduces a Bayesian approach for LLM capability assessment that integrates…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Xiao Xiao , Yu Su , Sijing Zhang , Zhang Chen , Yadong Chen , Tian Liu

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa