Related papers: Bayesian Static Parameter Estimation for Partially…
In this paper, we introduce the $\sigma$-antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator for a multi-dimensional diffusion which is an extended version of the original antithetic MLMC one introduced by Giles and Szpruch \cite{a}. Our aim…
Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis is a formal approach to coherently synthesizing multiple predictive distributions into a single distribution. In sequential analysis, the computation of the synthesized predictive distribution has…
We address the approximation of functionals depending on a system of particles, described by stochastic differential equations (SDEs), in the mean-field limit when the number of particles approaches infinity. This problem is equivalent to…
Parametric regularity of discretizations of flux vector fields satisfying a balance law is studied under some assumptions on a random parameter that links the flux with an unknown primal variable (often through a constitutive law). In the…
We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for $n$ observations is estimated from a random subset of $m$ observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the predominant tool used in Bayesian parameter estimation for hierarchical models. When the model expands due to an increasing number of hierarchical levels, number of groups at a particular level, or…
In this paper we present a rigorous cost and error analysis of a multilevel estimator based on randomly shifted Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) lattice rules for lognormal diffusion problems. These problems are motivated by uncertainty…
We introduce Projected Latent Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PL-MCMC), a technique for sampling from the high-dimensional conditional distributions learned by a normalizing flow. We prove that a Metropolis-Hastings implementation of PL-MCMC…
We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…
Along with the recent advances in scalable Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, sampling techniques that are based on Langevin diffusions have started receiving increasing attention. These so called Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) methods are based…
We consider the application of multilevel Monte Carlo methods to steady state Darcy flow in a random porous medium, described mathematically by elliptic partial differential equations with random coefficients. The levels in the multilevel…
Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) is now a popular method for performing Bayesian statistical inference on challenging state space models (SSMs) with unknown static parameters. It uses a particle filter (PF) at each iteration of an…
We revisit the problem of sampling from a target distribution that has a smooth strongly log-concave density everywhere in $\mathbb R^p$. In this context, if no additional density information is available, the randomized midpoint…
Employing Bayesian inference to calibrate constitutive model parameters has grown substantially in recent years. Among the available techniques, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling remains one of the most widely used approaches for…
We present an original simulation-based method to estimate likelihood ratios efficiently for general state-space models. Our method relies on a novel use of the conditional Sequential Monte Carlo (cSMC) algorithm introduced in…
We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or…
We present novel Monte Carlo (MC) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to determine the unbiased covariance of random variables using h-statistics. The advantage of this procedure lies in the unbiased construction of the estimator's…
In this paper, we provide a multiscale perspective on the problem of maximum marginal likelihood estimation. We consider and analyse a diffusion-based maximum marginal likelihood estimation scheme using ideas from multiscale dynamics. Our…
This paper develops and analyzes an efficient numerical method for solving elliptic partial differential equations, where the diffusion coefficients are random perturbations of deterministic diffusion coefficients. The method is based upon…