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A rich set of frequentist model averaging methods has been developed, but their applications have largely been limited to point prediction, as measuring prediction uncertainty in general settings remains an open problem. In this paper we…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-21 Zhongjun Qu , Wendun Wang , Xiaomeng Zhang

Treatment effect estimation in continuous time is crucial for personalized medicine. However, existing methods for this task are limited to point estimates of the potential outcomes, whereas uncertainty estimates have been ignored. Needless…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-04 Konstantin Hess , Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

This paper focuses on providing the computation methods for the backward time tempered fractional Feynman-Kac equation, being one of the models recently proposed in [Wu, Deng, and Barkai, Phys. Rev. E, 84 (2016) 032151]. The discretization…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-05-01 Weihua Deng , Zhijiang Zhang

Finite differences have been widely used in mathematical theory as well as in scientific and engineering computations. These concepts are constantly mentioned in calculus. Most frequently-used difference formulas provide excellent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2010-06-09 Brian Jain , Andrew D. Sheng

In this paper we consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for coefficients of martingale regression models (in particular, time series models) after variable selection. Although constructing confidence intervals are common…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-19 Ka Wai Tsang , Wei Dai

Complex system design problems, such as those involved in aerospace engineering, require the use of numerically costly simulation codes in order to predict the performance of the system to be designed. In this context, these codes are often…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-14 Loic Brevault , Mathieu Balesdent

There has recently been considerable interest in addressing the problem of unifying distributed statistical analyses into a single coherent inference. This problem naturally arises in a number of situations, including in big-data settings,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-04 Hongsheng Dai , Murray Pollock , Gareth Roberts

Confidence intervals are assessed according to two criteria, namely expected length and coverage probability. In an attempt to apply the decision-theoretic method to finding a good confidence interval, a loss function that is a linear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-18 Paul Kabaila

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-07 Russell J. Bowater , Ludmila E. Guzmán-Pantoja

A calculator program has been written to give confidence intervals on branching ratios for rare decay modes (or similar quantities) calculated from the number of events observed, the acceptance factor, the background estimate and the…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2011-07-19 Roger Barlow

There are over 55 different ways to construct a confidence respectively credible interval (CI) for the binomial proportion. Methods to compare them are necessary to decide which should be used in practice. The interval score has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-08 Lisa J. Hofer , Leonhard Held

A framework is presented for fitting inverse problem models via variational Bayes approximations. This methodology guarantees flexibility to statistical model specification for a broad range of applications, good accuracy and reduced model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-05 Luca Maestrini , Robert G. Aykroyd , Matt P. Wand

Finite difference schemes are here solved by means of a linear matrix equation. The theoretical study of the related algebraic system is exposed, and enables us to minimize the error due to a finite difference approximation.

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Claire David

Estimation frameworks for statistical inference are preferred to hypothesis testing when quantifying uncertainty and precise estimation are more valuable than binary decisions about statistical significance. Study design for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

In this paper, we consider finite difference approximations of the second order wave equation. We use finite difference operators satisfying the summation-by-parts property to discretize the equation in space. Boundary conditions and grid…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-09-04 Siyang Wang , Gunilla Kreiss

We consider the problem of simulating a Gaussian vector X, conditional on the fact that each component of X belongs to a finite interval [a_i,b_i], or a semi-finite interval [a_i,+infty). In the one-dimensional case, we design a table-based…

Computation · Statistics 2012-01-31 Nicolas Chopin

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal

Uncertainty quantification for estimation through stochastic optimization solutions in an online setting has gained popularity recently. This paper introduces a novel inference method focused on constructing confidence intervals with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Wanrong Zhu , Zhipeng Lou , Ziyang Wei , Wei Biao Wu

Confidence intervals are a fundamental tool for quantifying the uncertainty of parameters of interest. With the increase of data privacy awareness, developing a private version of confidence intervals has gained growing attention from both…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-12 Shurong Lin , Mark Bun , Marco Gaboardi , Eric D. Kolaczyk , Adam Smith

Finite element methods provide accurate and efficient methods for the numerical solution of partial differential equations by means of restricting variational problems to finite-dimensional approximating spaces. However, they do not…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-24 Robert C. Kirby , John D. Stephens
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