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The performance of the Monte Carlo sampling methods relies on the crucial choice of a proposal density. The notion of optimality is fundamental to design suitable adaptive procedures of the proposal density within Monte Carlo schemes. This…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-24 Fernando Llorente , Luca Martino

In this paper, we consider the problem of parameter sensitivity in models of complex dynamical systems through the lens of information geometry. We calculate the sensitivity of model behavior to variations in parameters. In most cases,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-07-17 Benjamin L. Francis , Mark K. Transtrum

In this paper, we first study a new sensitivity index that is based on higher moments and generalizes the so-called Sobol one. Further, following an idea of Borgonovo ([3]), we define and study a new sensitivity index based on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-01 Fabrice Gamboa , Thierry Klein , Agnès Lagnoux

In many real-world engineering systems, the performance or reliability of the system is characterised by a scalar parameter. The distribution of this performance parameter is important in many uncertainty quantification problems, ranging…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-03 Robert Millar , Jinglai Li , Hui Li

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods often rely on a preprocessing phase consisting of standard Monte Carlo sampling to estimate correlation coefficients between models of different fidelity to determine the weights and number of samples for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-06-29 Todd A. Oliver , Christopher S. Simmons , Robert D. Moser

In the following article we provide an exposition of exact computational methods to perform parameter inference from partially observed network models. In particular, we consider the duplication attachment (DA) model which has a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-20 Junshan Wang , Ajay Jasra , Maria De Iorio

We study the numerical integration of functions from isotropic Sobolev spaces $W_p^s([0,1]^d)$ using finitely many function evaluations within randomized algorithms, aiming for the smallest possible probabilistic error guarantee…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-10-09 Robert J. Kunsch

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…

Computation · Statistics 2008-07-22 Ioana A. Cosma , Masoud Asgharian

Sensitivity analysis is an effective tool for systematically identifying specific perturbations in parameters that have significant effects on the behavior of a given biosystem, at the scale investigated. In this work, using a…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2007-12-04 Zhihui Wang , Christina M. Birch , Thomas S. Deisboeck

Following up on the success of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition and the Sobol indices (SI) for global sensitivity analysis, various related quantities of interest have been defined in the literature including the effective and…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2017-12-06 Rafael Ballester-Ripoll , Enrique G. Paredes , Renato Pajarola

The material removal rates during milling operations are affected by the selection of the cutting depth and spindle speed. Poor selection of these parameters can result in chatter or suboptimal material removal rates. Stability Lobe…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-07-16 M. Hashemitaheri , T. T. Le , T. Khan , H. Cherukuri

The optimal design of nanoparticle synthesis protocols is often achieved via one-at-a-time experimental designs. Aside from covering a limited space for the possible input conditions, these methods neglect possible interaction between…

Materials Science · Physics 2020-06-23 M. Reza. Andalibi , Paul Bowen , Agnese Carino , Andrea Testino

ANOVA decomposition of function with random input variables provides ANOVA functionals (AFs), which contain information about the contributions of the input variables on the output variable(s). By embedding AFs into an appropriate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-29 Matieyendou Lamboni

We show how to apply Sobol's method of global sensitivity analysis to measure the influence exerted by a set of nodes' evidence on a quantity of interest expressed by a Bayesian network. Our method exploits the network structure so as to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-11 Rafael Ballester-Ripoll , Manuele Leonelli

Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Andrew Jesson , Alyson Douglas , Peter Manshausen , Maëlys Solal , Nicolai Meinshausen , Philip Stier , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-18 Giacomo Zanella , Gareth Roberts

Models for complex systems are often built with more parameters than can be uniquely identified by available data. Because of the variety of causes, identifying a lack of parameter identifiability typically requires mathematical…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-03 David Campbell , Subhash Lele

Physical phenomena are commonly modeled by numerical simulators. Such codes can take as input a high number of uncertain parameters and it is important to identify their influences via a global sensitivity analysis (GSA). However, these…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-04 Matthias De Lozzo , Amandine Marrel

Sensitivity indices are commonly used to quantify the relative influence of any specific group of input variables on the output of a computer code. One crucial question is then to decide whether a given set of variables has a significant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-05 Thierry Klein , Nicolas Peteilh , Paul Rochet

Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander