Related papers: Smooth Transition HYGARCH Model: Stability and For…
Stochastic Spatio-Temporal processes are prevalent across domains ranging from modeling of plasma to the turbulence in fluids to the wave function of quantum systems. This letter studies a measure-theoretic description of such systems by…
Adiabatic passage employs a slowly varying time-dependent Hamiltonian to control the evolution of a quantum system along the Hamiltonian eigenstates. For processes of finite duration, the exact time evolving state may deviate from the…
We investigate the properties of a continuous time GARCH process as the solution to a L\'evy driven stochastic functional integral equation. This process occurs as a weak limit of a sequence of discrete time GARCH processes as the time…
The process algebra HYPE was recently proposed as a fine-grained modelling approach for capturing the behaviour of hybrid systems. In the original proposal, each flow or influence affecting a variable is modelled separately and the overall…
GARCH-type time series (characterized by Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) exhibit pronounced volatility, autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity. To address these challenges and enhance predictive accuracy, this…
Action-driven stochastic human motion prediction aims to generate future motion sequences of a pre-defined target action based on given past observed sequences performing non-target actions. This task primarily presents two challenges.…
This paper models stochastic process of price time series of CSI 300 index in Chinese financial market, analyzes volatility characteristics of intraday high-frequency price data. In the new generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model,…
COGARCH models are continuous time version of the well known GARCH models of financial returns. They are solution of a stochastic differential equation driven by a L\'evy process. The first aim of this paper is to show how the method of…
We use persistent homology and persistence images as an observable of three different variants of the two-dimensional XY model in order to identify and study their phase transitions. We examine models with the classical XY action, a…
We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…
This paper considers a semiparametric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (S-GARCH) model. For this model, we first estimate the time-varying long run component for unconditional variance by the kernel estimator, and…
In this paper we consider a fractional stochastic volatility model, that is a model in which the volatility may exhibit a long-range dependent or a rough/antipersistent behavior. We propose a dynamic sequential Monte Carlo methodology that…
Graphical forecasting models learn the structure of time series data via projecting onto a graph, with recent techniques capturing spatial-temporal associations between variables via edge weights. Hierarchical variants offer a distinct…
Stochastic HYPE is a novel process algebra that models stochastic, instantaneous and continuous behaviour. It develops the flow-based approach of the hybrid process algebra HYPE by replacing non-urgent events with events with…
Traditional Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models offer an effective way to model these dynamics through smooth regime changes based on specific transition variables. In this paper, we propose a novel approach by drawing an analogy…
Matrix-variate time series data are largely available in applications. However, no attempt has been made to study their conditional heteroskedasticity that is often observed in economic and financial data. To address this gap, we propose a…
Using high frequency data, we have studied empirically the change of volatility, also called volatility derivative, for various time horizons. In particular, the correlation between the volatility derivative and the volatility realized in…
Time variation and persistence are crucial properties of volatility that are often studied separately in energy volatility forecasting models. Here, we propose a novel approach that allows shocks with heterogeneous persistence to vary…
We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation…
We introduce a Hawkes-like process and study its scaling limit as the system becomes increasingly endogenous. We derive functional limit theorems for intensity and fluctuations. Then, we introduce a high-frequency model for a price of a…