Related papers: Changing U.S. Extreme Temperature Statistics
Most extreme events in real life can be faithfully modeled as random realizations from a Generalized Pareto distribution, which depends on two parameters: the scale and the shape. In many actual situations, one is mostly concerned with the…
Detrended fluctuation analysis is used to investigate correlations between the monthly average of the maximum daily temperatures for different locations in the continental US and the different climates these locations have. When we plot the…
Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating…
Superstatistics describes nonequilibrium steady states as superpositions of canonical ensembles with a probability distribution of temperatures. Rather than assume a certain distribution of temperature, recently [J. Phys. A: Math. Theor.…
The mean North American and world climates have warmed significantly since the beginning of climatologically significant anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases in the 19th Century. It has been suggested that warming may increase the…
We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…
Understanding droughts in a climate context remains a major challenge. Over the United States, different choices of observations and metrics have often produced diametrically opposite insights. This paper focuses on understanding and…
Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…
Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…
With climate change, we are expecting more frequent extreme weather events in many regions worldwide. These events can trigger disruptive, deadly natural hazards, which catch the attention of the media and raise awareness in citizens and…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…
Monte Carlo computer simulations are virtually the only way to analyze the thermodynamic behavior of a system in a precise way. However, the various existing methods exhibit extreme differences in their efficiency, depending on model…
Most climate trend studies analyze long-term trends as a proxy for climate dynamics. However, when examining seasonal data, it is unrealistic to assume that long-term trends remain consistent across all seasons. Instead, each season likely…
Scientists agree about the urgency of the problem of climate change. Most citizens, however, pay little attention to gradually increasing temperature levels. Growing numbers of natural disasters in the world might then play a fundamental…
Clustering of extreme events can have profound and detrimental societal consequences. The extremal index, a number in the unit interval, is a key parameter in modelling the clustering of extremes. The study of extremal index often assumes a…
Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or is a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact and forecasting studies of climate change. In…
Four sets of global average temperature anomalies, altered so that they refer to pre-industrial temperature levels (baseline), as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are analysed in this study. Expectation values…
The aim of online monitoring is to issue an alarm as soon as there is significant evidence in the collected observations to suggest that the underlying data generating mechanism has changed. This work is concerned with open-end,…
In many applied fields it is desired to make predictions with the aim of assessing the plausibility of more severe events than those already recorded to safeguard against calamities that have not yet occurred. This problem can be analysed…