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We investigate the convergence properties of the EM algorithm when applied to overspecified Gaussian mixture models -- that is, when the number of components in the fitted model exceeds that of the true underlying distribution. Focusing on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-16 Zhenisbek Assylbekov , Alan Legg , Artur Pak

We address the problem of Schr\"odinger potential estimation, which plays a crucial role in modern generative modelling approaches based on Schr\"odinger bridges and stochastic optimal control for SDEs. Given a simple prior diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Nikita Puchkin , Iurii Pustovalov , Yuri Sapronov , Denis Suchkov , Alexey Naumov , Denis Belomestny

We study mixture of linear regression (random coefficient) models, which capture population heterogeneity by allowing the regression coefficients to follow an unknown distribution $G^*$. In contrast to common parametric methods that fix the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Hansheng Jiang , Adityanand Guntuboyina

We employ a parameter-free distribution estimation framework where estimators are random distributions and utilize the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as a loss function. Wu and Vos [J. Statist. Plann. Inference 142 (2012) 1525-1536] show…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-21 Paul Vos , Qiang Wu

Information-theoretic measures such as the entropy, cross-entropy and the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two mixture models is a core primitive in many signal processing tasks. Since the Kullback-Leibler divergence of mixtures provably…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-01 Frank Nielsen , Ke Sun

In the context of density level set estimation, we study the convergence of general plug-in methods under two main assumptions on the density for a given level $\lambda$. More precisely, it is assumed that the density (i) is smooth in a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Philippe Rigollet , Régis Vert

We study the following learning problem with dependent data: Observing a trajectory of length $n$ from a stationary Markov chain with $k$ states, the goal is to predict the next state. For $3 \leq k \leq O(\sqrt{n})$, using techniques from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-05 Yanjun Han , Soham Jana , Yihong Wu

Theoretical guarantees are established for a standard estimator in a semi-parametric finite mixture model, where each component density is modeled as a product of univariate densities under a conditional independence assumption. The focus…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-07 Marie Du Roy de Chaumaray , Michael Levine , Matthieu Marbac

Finite mixture models are widely used in econometric analyses to capture unobserved heterogeneity. This paper shows that maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixtures of parametric densities can suffer from substantial finite-sample bias…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Raphaël Langevin

We consider learning with possibilistic supervision for multi-class classification. For each training instance, the supervision is a normalized possibility distribution that expresses graded plausibility over the classes. From this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Ismaïl Baaj , Pierre Marquis

We discuss optimal prediction for families of probability distributions with a locally compact topological group structure. Right-invariant priors were previously shown to yield a posterior predictive distribution minimizing the worst-case…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Jannis Bolik , Thomas Hofmann

We study the problem of nonparametric estimation of density functions with a product form on the domain $\triangle=\{( x_1, \ldots, x_d)\in \mathbb{R}^d, 0\leq x_1\leq \dots \leq x_d \leq 1\}$. Such densities appear in the random truncation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-22 Cristina Butucea , Jean-François Delmas , Anne Dutfoy , Richard Fischer

We consider the problem of optimality, in a minimax sense, and adaptivity to the margin and to regularity in binary classification. We prove an oracle inequality, under the margin assumption (low noise condition), satisfied by an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Guillaume Lecué

Estimating Kullback-Leibler divergence from identical and independently distributed samples is an important problem in various domains. One simple and effective estimator is based on the k nearest neighbor distances between these samples.…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-02-27 Puning Zhao , Lifeng Lai

In a variety of applications it is important to extract information from a probability measure $\mu$ on an infinite dimensional space. Examples include the Bayesian approach to inverse problems and possibly conditioned) continuous time…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-02 Frank Pinski , Gideon Simpson , Andrew Stuart , Hendrik Weber

Mixture distributions arise in many application areas, for example as marginal distributions or convolutions of distributions. We present a method of constructing an easily tractable discrete mixture distribution as an approximation to a…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-20 Christian Röver , Tim Friede

In this paper, we propose a theoretical analysis of the algorithm ISDE, introduced in previous work. From a dataset, ISDE learns a density written as a product of marginal density estimators over a partition of the features. We show that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-09 Louis Pujol

In this paper we consider regression problems subject to arbitrary noise in the operator or design matrix. This characterization appropriately models many physical phenomena with uncertainty in the regressors. Although the problem has been…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-08 Richard J Clancy , Stephen Becker

This paper proposes a distributionally robust unit commitment approach for microgrids under net load and electricity market price uncertainty. The key thrust of the proposed approach is to leverage the Kullback-Leibler divergence to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-15 Ogun Yurdakul , Fikret Sivrikaya , Sahin Albayrak

We consider the problem of constructing a least conservative estimator of the expected value $\mu$ of a non-negative heavy-tailed random variable. We require that the probability of overestimating the expected value $\mu$ is kept…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Bart P. G. van Parys , Bert Zwart