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Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

We propose a principled Bayesian method for quantifying tension between correlated datasets with wide uninformative parameter priors. This is achieved by extending the Suspiciousness statistic, which is insensitive to priors. Our method…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-07-08 Pablo Lemos , Fabian Köhlinger , Will Handley , Benjamin Joachimi , Lorne Whiteway , Ofer Lahav

In this paper, we present an algorithm for learning time-correlated measurement covariances for application in batch state estimation. We parameterize the inverse measurement covariance matrix to be block-banded, which conveniently…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-03-14 David J. Yoon , Timothy D. Barfoot

Power system coherency refers to the phenomenon that machines in a power network exhibit similar frequency responses after disturbances, and is foundational for model reduction and control design. Despite abundant empirical observations,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-11 Yixuan Liu , Yingzhu Liu , Pengcheng You

Conformal prediction is a model-free machine learning method for constructing prediction regions at a guaranteed coverage probability level. However, a data scientist often faces three challenges in practice: (i) the determination of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Liang Hong , Noura Raydan Nasreddine

Uncertainty quantification is critical in scientific inverse problems to distinguish identifiable parameters from those that remain ambiguous given available measurements. The Conditional Diffusion Model-based Inverse Problem Solver (CDI)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Dmitrii Torbunov , Yihui Ren , Lijun Wu , Yimei Zhu

Conformal prediction, which makes no distributional assumptions about the data, has emerged as a powerful and reliable approach to uncertainty quantification in practical applications. The nonconformity measure used in conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Yuko Kato , David M. J. Tax , Marco Loog

Abstract. The advancement of deep learning has coincided with the proliferation of both models and available data. The surge in dataset sizes and the subsequent surge in computational requirements have led to the development of the Dataset…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Jun-Yeong Moon , Jung Uk Kim , Gyeong-Moon Park

In this paper, building on work done on measuring inconsistency in knowledge bases, we introduce inconsistency measures for databases. In particular, focusing on databases with denial constraints, we first consider the natural approach of…

Databases · Computer Science 2019-04-09 Francesco Parisi , John Grant

Detecting and measuring confounding effects from data is a key challenge in causal inference. Existing methods frequently assume causal sufficiency, disregarding the presence of unobserved confounding variables. Causal sufficiency is both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy , Vineeth N Balasubramanian

In astronomy, there is an opportunity to enhance the practice of validating models through statistical techniques, specifically to account for measurement error uncertainties. While models are commonly used to describe observations, there…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-08-09 Fiorenzo Stoppa , Eric Cator , Gijs Nelemans

Data integration is a notoriously difficult and heuristic-driven process, especially when ground-truth data are not readily available. This paper presents a measure of uncertainty by providing maximal and minimal ranges of a query outcome…

Databases · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Deniz Turkcapar , Sanjay Krishnan

We investigate the problem of inconsistency measurement on large knowledge bases by considering stream-based inconsistency measurement, i.e., we investigate inconsistency measures that cannot consider a knowledge base as a whole but process…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-21 Matthias Thimm

Identifying meaningful and independent factors of variation in a dataset is a challenging learning task frequently addressed by means of deep latent variable models. This task can be viewed as learning symmetry transformations preserving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Maxim Samarin , Vitali Nesterov , Mario Wieser , Aleksander Wieczorek , Sonali Parbhoo , Volker Roth

In practical data integration systems, it is common for the data sources being integrated to provide conflicting information about the same entity. Consequently, a major challenge for data integration is to derive the most complete and…

Databases · Computer Science 2012-03-05 Bo Zhao , Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein , Jim Gemmell , Jiawei Han

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-22 Marvin Schmitt , Stefan T. Radev , Paul-Christian Bürkner

We present three tiers of Bayesian consistency tests for the general case of $correlated$ datasets. Building on duplicates of the model parameters assigned to each dataset, these tests range from Bayesian evidence ratios as a global summary…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2019-01-24 Fabian Köhlinger , Benjamin Joachimi , Marika Asgari , Massimo Viola , Shahab Joudaki , Tilman Tröster

In the advent of big data and machine learning, researchers now have a wealth of congressional candidate ideal point estimates at their disposal for theory testing. Weak relationships raise questions about the extent to which they capture a…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-09 Mellissa Meisels , Melody Huang , Tiffany M. Tang

Many major works in social science employ matching to make causal conclusions, but different matches on the same data may produce different treatment effect estimates, even when they achieve similar balance or minimize the same loss…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-23 Marco Morucci , Cynthia Rudin

Assessing the consistency of parameter constraints derived from different cosmological probes is an important way to test the validity of the underlying cosmological model. In an earlier work [Nicola et al., 2017], we computed constraints…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-01 Andrina Nicola , Adam Amara , Alexandre Refregier