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Whereas the ability of deep networks to produce useful predictions has been amply demonstrated, estimating the reliability of these predictions remains challenging. Sampling approaches such as MC-Dropout and Deep Ensembles have emerged as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Nikita Durasov , Nik Dorndorf , Hieu Le , Pascal Fua

In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been proposed to devise data-driven parametrisations of unresolved processes in dynamical numerical models. In most cases, the ML training leverages high-resolution simulations to provide a dense,…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-12-09 Julien Brajard , Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Laurent Bertino

Piecewise-deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers constitute a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo paradigm in Bayesian computation, with examples including the zig-zag and bouncy particle sampler (bps). Recent work on the…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-10 Andrew Chin , Akihiko Nishimura

Multivariate meta-analysis is gaining prominence in evidence synthesis research because it enables simultaneous synthesis of multiple correlated outcome data, and random-effects models have generally been used for addressing between-studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Hisashi Noma , Kengo Nagashima , Toshi A. Furukawa

Estimation of finite mixture models when the mixing distribution support is unknown is an important problem. This paper gives a new approach based on a marginal likelihood for the unknown support. Motivated by a Bayesian Dirichlet prior…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-11 Ryan Martin

Statistical inference methods are fundamentally important in machine learning. Most state-of-the-art inference algorithms are variants of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or variational inference (VI). However, both methods struggle with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-17 Yichuan Zhang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

The article concerns hybrid combinations of empirical and parametric likelihood functions. Combining the two allows classical parametric likelihood to be crucially modified via the nonparametric counterpart, making possible model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-25 Ingrid Dæhlen , Nils Lid Hjort

We use the theory of normal variance-mean mixtures to derive a data augmentation scheme for models that include gamma functions. Our methodology applies to many situations in statistics and machine learning, including Multinomial-Dirichlet…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-22 Jingyu He , Nicholas Polson , Jianeng Xu

The shocks which hit macroeconomic models such as Vector Autoregressions (VARs) have the potential to be non-Gaussian, exhibiting asymmetries and fat tails. This consideration motivates the VAR developed in this paper which uses a Dirichlet…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-05-29 Florian Huber , Gary Koop

In many applications, a finite mixture is a natural model, but it can be difficult to choose an appropriate number of components. To circumvent this choice, investigators are increasingly turning to Dirichlet process mixtures (DPMs), and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-03 Jeffrey W. Miller , Matthew T. Harrison

Variational inference with Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) enables learning of highly tractable yet multi-modal approximations of intractable target distributions with up to a few hundred dimensions. The two currently most effective methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Oleg Arenz , Philipp Dahlinger , Zihan Ye , Michael Volpp , Gerhard Neumann

We present a hybrid continuum-atomistic scheme which combines molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with on-the-fly machine learning techniques for the accurate and efficient prediction of multiscale fluidic systems. By using a Gaussian…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2016-03-16 David Stephenson , James R Kermode , Duncan A Lockerby

When observations are organized into groups where commonalties exist amongst them, the dependent random measures can be an ideal choice for modeling. One of the propositions of the dependent random measures is that the atoms of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-28 Cheng Luo , Richard Yi Da Xu , Yang Xiang

Methods that bypass analytical evaluations of the likelihood function have become an indispensable tool for statistical inference in many fields of science. These so-called likelihood-free methods rely on accepting and rejecting simulations…

Mixture models are widely used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning, in particular in computational biology, natural language processing and many other fields. Variational inference, a technique for approximating intractable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier

Recently, a versatile limited feedback scheme based on a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) was proposed for frequency division duplex (FDD) systems. This scheme provides high flexibility regarding various system parameters and is applicable to…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-11-29 Nurettin Turan , Benedikt Fesl , Wolfgang Utschick

In social science research, understanding latent structures in populations through survey data with categorical responses is a common and important task. Traditional methods like Factor Analysis and Latent Class Analysis have limitations,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-30 Chayut Wongkamthong

We investigate nonlinear prediction in an online setting and introduce a hybrid model that effectively mitigates, via an end-to-end architecture, the need for hand-designed features and manual model selection issues of conventional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-11 Mustafa E. Aydın , Suleyman S. Kozat

We present a Dirichlet process mixture model over discrete incomplete rankings and study two Gibbs sampling inference techniques for estimating posterior clusterings. The first approach uses a slice sampling subcomponent for estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Marina Meila , Harr Chen

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Matthew J. Johnson , Alan Willsky