Related papers: Asset correlation estimation for inhomogeneous exp…
In structural credit risk models, default events and the ensuing losses are both derived from the asset values at maturity. Hence it is of utmost importance to choose a distribution for these asset values which is in accordance with…
This paper generalizes Moody's correlated binomial default distribution for homogeneous (exchangeable) credit portfolio, which is introduced by Witt, to the case of inhomogeneous portfolios. As inhomogeneous portfolios, we consider two…
The risk of a credit portfolio depends crucially on correlations between the probability of default (PD) in different economic sectors. Often, PD correlations have to be estimated from relatively short time series of default rates, and the…
The probability distribution for the relative return of a portfolio constructed from a subset n of the assets from a benchmark, consisting of N assets whose returns are multivariate normal, is completely characterized by its tracking error.…
The probability of default (PD) estimation is an important process for financial institutions. The difficulty of the estimation depends on the correlations between borrowers. In this paper, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian estimation…
We discuss the parameter estimation of the probability of default (PD), the correlation between the obligors, and a phase transition. In our previous work, we studied the problem using the beta-binomial distribution. A non-equilibrium phase…
This article deals with the problem of optimal allocation of capital to corporate bonds in fixed income portfolios when there is the possibility of correlated defaults. Using a multivariate normal Copula function for the joint default…
Asset correlations are an intuitive and therefore popular way to incorporate event dependence into event risk, e.g., default risk, modeling. In this paper we study the case of estimation of inter-sector asset correlations by separation of…
Banks are required to use long-term default probabilities (PDs) of their portfolios when calculating credit risk capital under internal ratings-based (IRB) models. However, the calibration models and historical data typically reflect…
Data assimilation involves estimating the state of a system by combining observations from various sources with a background estimate of the state. The weights given to the observations and background state depend on their specified error…
Evaluation of default correlation is an important task in credit risk analysis. In many practical situations, it concerns the joint defaults of several correlated firms, the task that is reducible to a first passage time (FPT) problem. This…
This article deals with the problem of optimal allocation of capital to corporate bonds in fixed income portfolios when there is the possibility of correlated defaults. Under fairly general assumptions for the distribution of the total net…
Measurement and management of credit concentration risk is critical for banks and relevant for micro-prudential requirements. While several methods exist for measuring credit concentration risk within institutions, the systemic effect of…
The instability of historical risk factor correlations renders their use in estimating portfolio risk extremely questionable. In periods of market stress correlations of risk factors have a tendency to quickly go well beyond estimated…
Intuitively, the default risk of a single borrower is higher when her or his assets and debt are denominated in different currencies. Additionally, the default dependence of borrowers with assets and debt in different currencies should be…
Statistical inference for large data panels is omnipresent in modern economic applications. An important benefit of panel analysis is the possibility to reduce noise and thus to guarantee stable inference by intersectional pooling. However,…
In general, underestimation of risk is something which should be avoided as far as possible. Especially in financial asset management, equity risk is typically characterized by the measure of portfolio variance, or indirectly by quantities…
Missing time-series data is a prevalent practical problem. Imputation methods in time-series data often are applied to the full panel data with the purpose of training a model for a downstream out-of-sample task. For example, in finance,…
Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we aim at relating the long range correlation of the stocks return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations about the level of the future volatility. Based on a…
This article gives a probabilistic overview of the widely used method of default probability estimation proposed by K. Pluto and D. Tasche. There are listed detailed assumptions and derivation of the inequality where the probability of…