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We derive exponential bounds on probabilities of large deviations for "light tail" martingales taking values in finite-dimensional normed spaces. Our primary emphasis is on the case where the bounds are dimension-independent or nearly so.…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-31 Anatoli Juditsky , Arkadii S. Nemirovski

We interpret the moment generating function ${\bf E}(e^{tX}):= {\rm exp}_F(t) \in {\bf R}[[t]]$ of a random variable $X$ as the exponential of an associated one-dimensional formal group law $F$ defined over ${\bf R}$.

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-04 Jack Morava

Models for extreme values are generally derived from limit results, which are meant to be good enough approximations when applied to finite samples. Depending on the speed of convergence of the process underlying the data, these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-20 Thomas Lugrin , Anthony C. Davison , Jonathan A. Tawn

Let (Z_n)_{n\in\N_0} be a d-dimensional random walk in random scenery, i.e., Z_n=\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}Y_{S_k} with (S_k)_{k\in\N_0} a random walk in Z^d and (Y_z)_{z\in Z^d} an i.i.d. scenery, independent of the walk. We assume that the random…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Remco van der Hofstad , Nina Gantert , Wolfgang König

For a branching random walk that drifts to infinity, consider its Malthusian martingale, i.e.~the additive martingale with parameter $\theta$ being the smallest root of the characteristic equation. When particles are killed below the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-20 Heng Ma , Pascal Maillard

This article concerns the tail probabilities of a light-tailed Markov-modulated L\'evy process stopped at a state-dependent Poisson rate. The tails are shown to decay exponentially at rates given by the unique positive and negative roots of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-26 Brendan K. Beare , Won-Ki Seo , Alexis Akira Toda

The aim of this note is to estimate the tail of the distribution of the number of particles in an interval under determinantal and Pfaffian point processes. The main result of the note is that the square of the number of particles under the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Alexander I. Bufetov

In this article two methods to distinguish between polynomial and exponential tails are introduced. The methods are mainly based on the properties of the residual coefficient of variation for the exponential and non-exponential…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-12-21 Joan del Castillo , Jalila Daoudi , Richard Lockhart

In this paper we derive non-classical Tauberian asymptotic at infinity for the tail, the density and the derivatives thereof of a large class of exponential functionals of subordinators. More precisely, we consider the case when the L\'evy…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-30 Martin Minchev , Mladen Savov

We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-26 Rafał Kulik , Zhigang Tong

We derive the sharp non-asymptotical uniform estimations for tails of distributions for classical normed sums of centered normed independent random vectors having a moderate decreasing individual tails of summands.

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-08 M. R. Formica , E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

We establish a link between the distribution of an exponential functional I and the undershoots of a subordinator, which is given in terms of the associated harmonic potential measure. This allows us to give a necessary and sufficient…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-13 Larbi Alili , Wissem Jedidi , Víctor Rivero

Starting from the moment sequences of classical orthogonal polynomials we derive the orthogonality purely algebraically. We consider also the moments of ($q=1$) classical orthogonal polynomials, and study those cases in which the…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2022-01-11 Ira M. Gessel , Jiang Zeng

Intervals between discrete events representing human activities, as well as other types of events, often obey heavy-tailed distributions, and their impacts on collective dynamics on networks such as contagion processes have been intensively…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-11-24 Elohim Fonseca dos Reis , Aming Li , Naoki Masuda

This paper states asymptotic equivalents for the three first moments of the Eescher transform of a distribution on R with smooth density in the upper tail. As a by product if provides a tail approximation for its moment generating function,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-21 Maeva Biret , Michel Broniatowski , Zhansheng Cao

By using a probabilistic technique based on the exponential change of measure we find a precise tail asymptotic behavior of some perpetuities with distributions close to the Dickman distribution.

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-17 Alexander Iksanov , Oleh Iksanov

We study velocity statistics of electrostatically driven granular gases. For two different experiments: (i) non-magnetic particles in a viscous fluid and (ii) magnetic particles in air, the velocity distribution is non-Maxwellian, and its…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 K. Kohlstedt , A. Snezhko , M. V. Sapozhnikov , I. S. Aranson , J. S. Olafsen , E. Ben-Naim

We investigate the non-perturbative results of multi-dimensional forced Burgers equation coupled to the continuity equation. In the inviscid limit, we derive the exact exponents of two-point density correlation functions in the universal…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 Ali Naji , Shahin Rouhani

Many inference problems involving questions of optimality ask for the maximum or the minimum of a finite set of unknown quantities. This technical report derives the first two posterior moments of the maximum of two correlated Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-10-02 Philipp Hennig

In this paper non-asymptotic moment estimates are derived for tail of distribution for discrete time polynomial martingale by means of martingale differences as a rule in the terms of unconditional and unconditional relative moments and…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-06 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota
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