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Disease progression prediction based on patients' evolving health information is challenging when true disease states are unknown due to diagnostic capabilities or high costs. For example, the absence of gold-standard neurological diagnoses…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-12 Zexi Cai , Donglin Zeng , Karen S. Marder , Lawrence S. Honig , Yuanjia Wang

Disease progression modeling provides a robust framework to identify long-term disease trajectories from short-term biomarker data. It is a valuable tool to gain a deeper understanding of diseases with a long disease trajectory, such as…

In clinical practice and biomedical research, measurements are often collected sparsely and irregularly in time while the data acquisition is expensive and inconvenient. Examples include measurements of spine bone mineral density, cancer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-05 Łukasz Kidziński , Trevor Hastie

Predicting the risk of clinical progression from cognitively normal (CN) status to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or Alzheimer's disease (AD) is critical for early intervention in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Traditional survival models often…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-24 Dhrubajyoti Ghosh , Samhita Pal , Michael Lutz , Sheng Luo

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterized by cognitive decline, structural brain changes, and genetic predispositions. This study leverages machine-learning and statistical techniques to investigate…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-29 Riddhik Basu , Arkaprava Roy

Modeling the dynamics of probability distributions from time-dependent data samples is a fundamental problem in many fields, including digital health. The goal is to analyze how the distribution of a biomarker, such as glucose, changes over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-18 Antonio Álvarez-López , Marcos Matabuena

We study the multiplicative hazards model with intermittently observed longitudinal covariates and time-varying coefficients. For such models, the existing ad hoc approach, such as the last value carried forward, is biased. We propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-13 Zhuowei Sun , Hongyuan Cao

In this paper, the panel count data analysis for recurrent events is considered. Such analysis is useful for studying tumor or infection recurrences in both clinical trial and observational studies. A bivariate Gaussian Cox process model is…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-19 Ye Liang , Yang Li , Bin Zhang

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease.…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-20 Huy Hoang Nguyen , Matthew B. Blaschko , Simo Saarakkala , Aleksei Tiulpin

Multivariate bounded discrete data arises in many fields. In the setting of dementia studies, such data is collected when individuals complete neuropsychological tests. We outline a modeling and inference procedure that can model the joint…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Daniel Suen , Yen-Chi Chen

Biomarker measurements obtained by blood sampling are often used as a non-invasive means of monitoring tumour progression in cancer patients. Diseases evolve dynamically over time, and studying longitudinal observations of specific…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-14 Alice Cleynen , Benoîte de Saporta , Amélie Vernay

A particular challenge for disease progression modeling is the heterogeneity of a disease and its manifestations in the patients. Existing approaches often assume the presence of a single disease progression characteristics which is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Taha Ceritli , Andrew P. Creagh , David A. Clifton

Alzheimer's disease is characterised by the spreading of misfolded proteins and progressive structural changes in the brain. Despite significant clinical research, understanding how microscopic protein dynamics translate into macroscopic…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-03-23 A. Vazquez-Palomo , C. Betegón , J. Weickenmeier , E. Martínez-Pañeda

We propose a method to predict the subject-specific longitudinal progression of brain structures extracted from baseline MRI, and evaluate its performance on Alzheimer's disease data. The disease progression is modeled as a trajectory on a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-11-27 Alexandre Bône , Maxime Louis , Alexandre Routier , Jorge Samper , Michael Bacci , Benjamin Charlier , Olivier Colliot , Stanley Durrleman

The vast majority of models for the spread of communicable diseases are parametric in nature and involve underlying assumptions about how the disease spreads through a population. In this article we consider the use of Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-12 Theodore Kypraios , Philip D. O'Neill

The application of causal discovery to diseases like Alzheimer's (AD) is limited by the static graph assumptions of most methods; such models cannot account for an evolving pathophysiology, modulated by a latent disease pseudotime. We…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-07 Natalia Glazman , Jyoti Mangal , Pedro Borges , Sebastien Ourselin , M. Jorge Cardoso

Alzheimer's Dementia (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease marked by irreversible decline, making reliable modeling of its progression essential for effective patient care. Progression-aware methods such as survival analysis are…

We propose a general Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference in the point treatment setting. The joint distribution of the observed data (outcome, treatment, and confounders) is modeled using an enriched Dirichlet process.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-01 Jason Roy , Kirsten J Lum , Michael J. Daniels , Bret Zeldow , Jordan Dworkin , Vincent Lo Re

Robust forecasting of the future anatomical changes inflicted by an ongoing disease is an extremely challenging task that is out of grasp even for experienced healthcare professionals. Such a capability, however, is of great importance…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Dmitrii Lachinov , Arunava Chakravarty , Christoph Grechenig , Ursula Schmidt-Erfurth , Hrvoje Bogunovic

Continuous-time multistate models are widely used for analyzing interval-censored data on disease progression over time. Sometimes, diseases manifest differently and what appears to be a coherent collection of symptoms is the expression of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Yidan Shi , Leilei Zeng , Mary E. Thompson , Suzanne L. Tyas