Related papers: Optimal Mean-Reverting Spread Trading: Nonlinear I…
Motivated by the industry practice of pairs trading, we study the optimal timing strategies for trading a mean-reverting price spread. An optimal double stopping problem is formulated to analyze the timing to start and subsequently…
We study the optimal timing strategies for trading a mean-reverting price process with afinite deadline to enter and a separate finite deadline to exit the market. The price process is modeled by a diffusion with an affine drift that…
This paper studies the timing of trades under mean-reverting price dynamics subject to fixed transaction costs. We solve an optimal double stopping problem to determine the optimal times to enter and subsequently exit the market, when…
We consider the problem of the optimal trading strategy in the presence of linear costs, and with a strict cap on the allowed position in the market. Using Bellman's backward recursion method, we show that the optimal strategy is to switch…
This paper studies the problem of trading futures with transaction costs when the underlying spot price is mean-reverting. Specifically, we model the spot dynamics by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU), Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR), or exponential…
When prices reflect all available information, they oscillate around an equilibrium level. This oscillation is the result of the temporary market impact caused by waves of buyers and sellers. This price behavior can be approximated through…
Trailing stop is a popular stop-loss trading strategy by which the investor will sell the asset once its price experiences a pre-specified percentage drawdown. In this paper, we study the problem of timing buy and then sell an asset subject…
In this paper, we explore an optimal timing strategy for the trading of price spreads exhibiting mean-reverting characteristics. A sequential optimal stopping framework is formulated to analyze the optimal timings for both entering and…
We study the barrier that gives the optimal time to exercise an American option written on a time-dependent Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, a diffusion often adopted by practitioners to model commodity prices and interest rates. By framing the…
Finding Bertram's optimal trading strategy for a pair of cointegrated assets following the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck price difference process can be formulated as an unconstrained convex optimization problem for maximization of expected profit…
We consider the problem of the optimal trading strategy in the presence of a price predictor, linear trading costs and a quadratic risk control. The solution is known to be a band system, a policy that induces a no-trading zone in the…
We present a Monte Carlo approach to pairs trading on mean-reverting spreads modeled by L\'evy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. Specifically, we focus on using a variance gamma driving process, an infinite activity pure jump process to…
We study an optimal execution problem in the presence of market impact where the security price follows a geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, which implies the mean-reverting property, and show that the optimal strategy is a mixture of…
We study the problem of dynamically trading multiple futures whose underlying asset price follows a multiscale central tendency Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (MCTOU) model. Under this model, we derive the closed-form no-arbitrage prices for the…
We study optimal stopping problems related to the pricing of perpetual American options in an extension of the Black-Merton-Scholes model in which the dividend and volatility rates of the underlying risky asset depend on the running values…
We investigate a dividend maximization problem under stochastic interest rates with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics. This setup also takes negative rates into account. First a deterministic time is considered, where an explicit separating curve…
We propose a strategy for automated trading, outline theoretical justification of the profitability of this strategy and overview the hypothetical results in application to currency pairs trading. The proposed methodology relies on the…
Empirical studies indicate the existence of long range dependence in the volatility of the underlying asset. This feature can be captured by modeling its return and volatility using functions of a stationary fractional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck…
Calibrating a trading rule using a historical simulation (also called backtest) contributes to backtest overfitting, which in turn leads to underperformance. In this paper we propose a procedure for determining the optimal trading rule…
Semi-analytical pricing of American options in a time-dependent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model was presented in [Carr, Itkin, 2020]. It was shown that to obtain these prices one needs to solve (numerically) a nonlinear Volterra integral equation…