Related papers: The Neural Hawkes Process: A Neurally Self-Modulat…
The Hawkes process is a self-exciting sample point process. It has wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. With the development of storage technology, data-driven models are attracting…
Events in an online social network can be categorized roughly into endogenous events, where users just respond to the actions of their neighbors within the network, or exogenous events, where users take actions due to drives external to the…
The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…
This work contributes to the theory and applications of Hawkes processes. We introduce and examine a new class of Hawkes processes that we call generalized Hawkes processes, and their special subclass -- the generalized multivariate Hawkes…
Spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) model discrete events distributed in time and space, with important applications in areas such as criminology, seismology, epidemiology, and social networks. Traditional models often rely on…
Self-exciting point processes are widely used to model the contagious effects of crime events living within continuous geographic space, using their occurrence time and locations. However, in urban environments, most events are naturally…
Many self-exciting systems change because endogenous amplification, as opposed to exogenous forcing, varies. We study a Hawkes process with fixed background rate and kernel, but piecewise time-varying productivity. For exponential kernels…
Many real-world applications require robust algorithms to learn point processes based on a type of incomplete data --- the so-called short doubly-censored (SDC) event sequences. We study this critical problem of quantitative asynchronous…
A Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) is a stochastic process whose realization is a set of event-time data. MTPP is often used to understand complex dynamics of asynchronous temporal events such as money transaction, social media,…
Multi-dimensional Hawkes process (MHP) is a class of self and mutually exciting point processes that find wide range of applications -- from prediction of earthquakes to modelling of order books in high frequency trading. This paper makes…
Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing…
When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…
We explored the challenge of predicting and explaining the occurrence of events within sequences of data points. Our focus was particularly on scenarios in which unknown triggers causing the occurrence of events may consist of…
Hawkes processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic process that have been applied in diverse areas, from earthquake modelling to financial analysis. They are point processes whose defining characteristic is that they…
Neural processes have recently emerged as a class of powerful neural latent variable models that combine the strengths of neural networks and stochastic processes. As they can encode contextual data in the network's function space, they…
We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…
Learning causal structure among event types on multi-type event sequences is an important but challenging task. Existing methods, such as the Multivariate Hawkes processes, mostly assumed that each sequence is independent and identically…
A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…
Identification of patterns from discrete data time-series for statistical inference, threat detection, social opinion dynamics, brain activity prediction has received recent momentum. In addition to the huge data size, the associated…
This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…