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The large volumes of data generated by human activities such as online purchases, health records, spatial mobility etc. are stored as a sequence of events over a continuous time. Learning deep learning methods over such sequences is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Vinayak Gupta

In this paper we consider point processes specified on directed linear networks, i.e. linear networks with associated directions. We adapt the so-called conditional intensity function used for specifying point processes on the time line to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-03 Jakob G. Rasmussen , Heidi S. Christensen

We introduce a nonlinear modification of the classical Hawkes process, which allows inhibitory couplings between units without restrictions. The resulting system of interacting point processes provides a useful mathematical model for…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-11-03 Stefano Cardanobile , Stefan Rotter

In real-world scenario, many phenomena produce a collection of events that occur in continuous time. Point Processes provide a natural mathematical framework for modeling these sequences of events. In this survey, we investigate…

We present a new CUSUM procedure for sequentially detecting change-point in the self and mutual exciting processes, a.k.a. Hawkes networks using discrete events data. Hawkes networks have become a popular model for statistics and machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Haoyun Wang , Liyan Xie , Yao Xie , Alex Cuozzo , Simon Mak

We consider a sequential decision making problem where the agent faces the environment characterized by the stochastic discrete events and seeks an optimal intervention policy such that its long-term reward is maximized. This problem exists…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-29 Chao Qu , Xiaoyu Tan , Siqiao Xue , Xiaoming Shi , James Zhang , Hongyuan Mei

Self-exciting spatio-temporal point process models predict the rate of events as a function of space, time, and the previous history of events. These models naturally capture triggering and clustering behavior, and have been widely used in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Alex Reinhart

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Minju Jo , Seungji Kook , Noseong Park

The Hawkes process is a simple point process that has long memory, clustering effect, self-exciting property and is in general non-Markovian. The future evolution of a self-exciting point process is influenced by the timing of the past…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-25 Lingjiong Zhu

Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

This paper introduces the Neural Network for Nonlinear Hawkes processes (NNNH), a non-parametric method based on neural networks to fit nonlinear Hawkes processes. Our method is suitable for analyzing large datasets in which events exhibit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-07 Sobin Joseph , Shashi Jain

We present a novel Recurrent Graph Network (RGN) approach for predicting discrete marked event sequences by learning the underlying complex stochastic process. Using the framework of Point Processes, we interpret a marked discrete event…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-12 Saurabh Dash , Xueyuan She , Saibal Mukhopadhyay

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

The stochastic block model (SBM) is one of the most widely used generative models for network data. Many continuous-time dynamic network models are built upon the same assumption as the SBM: edges or events between all pairs of nodes are…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-08 Hadeel Soliman , Lingfei Zhao , Zhipeng Huang , Subhadeep Paul , Kevin S. Xu

We present the first exact analysis of some of the temporal properties of multivariate self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson processes, which constitute powerful representations of a large variety of systems with bursty events, for which…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-08-26 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

Events in the world may be caused by other, unobserved events. We consider sequences of events in continuous time. Given a probability model of complete sequences, we propose particle smoothing---a form of sequential importance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-15 Hongyuan Mei , Guanghui Qin , Jason Eisner

We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Hongteng Xu , Dixin Luo , Hongyuan Zha

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-03 Isabella Deutsch , Gordon J. Ross

We develop a new family of marked point processes by focusing the characteristic properties of marked Hawkes processes exclusively to the space of marks, providing the freedom to specify a different model for the occurrence times. This is…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-18 Santhosh Narayanan , Ioannis Kosmidis , Petros Dellaportas

Temporal point processes (TPPs) are stochastic process models used to characterize event sequences occurring in continuous time. Traditional statistical TPPs have a long-standing history, with numerous models proposed and successfully…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Feng Zhou , Quyu Kong , Jie Qiao , Cheng Wan , Yixuan Zhang , Ruichu Cai