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As IPCC ARs stated, global warming is estimated based on the average from 1850 to 1900 (global average temperature of preindustrialization estimated from relatively sparse observations). Given the impossibility of massive increasing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-10 Qingxiang Li , Zichen Li , Xuqian Li , Zengyun Hu , Aiguo Dai , Wenjie Dong , Boyin Huang , Zhihong Jiang , Panmao Zhai , Tianjun Zhou , Phil Jones

Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-23 Arash Khodadadi , Daniel J McDonald

We theoretically study long-term trends in the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and data from the city of Philadelphia, for which 126 years of daily temperature…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 S. Redner , Mark R. Petersen

As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state of the art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-26 David H. Douglass , Benjamin D. Pearson , S. Fred Singer

Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or is a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact and forecasting studies of climate change. In…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-12 Maria Dolores Gadea , Jesus Gonzalo , Andrey Ramos

Global climate change is one of main concern of modern society. To estimate this change usually one estimates the global mean temperature. Measuring and calculating the Earth's average temperature are multi-steps complex processes which…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-11-02 Slavoljub Mijovic

This study investigates the long-term effects of temperature variations on economic growth using a data-driven approach. Leveraging machine learning techniques, we analyze global land surface temperature data from Berkeley Earth and…

General Economics · Economics 2023-08-15 Eugene Kharitonov , Oksana Zakharchuk , Lin Mei

Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to deemphasize…

Applications · Statistics 2017-05-16 Andrew Poppick , Elisabeth J. Moyer , Michael L. Stein

Urbanization of an area is known to increase the temperature of the surrounding area. This phenomenon -- a so-called urban heat island (UHI) -- occurs at a local level over a period of time and has lasting impacts for historical data…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-30 Candace Berrett , Brianne Gurney , David Arthur , Todd Moon , Gus P. Williams

Various interpretations of the notion of a trend in the context of global warming are discussed, contrasting the difference between viewing a trend as the deterministic response to an external forcing and viewing it as a slow variation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-07-29 Lene Østvand , Kristoffer Rypdal , Martin Rypdal

The concept of temperature is one of the key ideas in describing the thermodynamical properties of a physical system. In classical statistical mechanics of ideal gases, the notion of temperature can be described in two different ways, the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-11-12 Krishna R. Narayanan , Arun R. Srinivasa

While the warming trends of the Earth's mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. In this letter we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-04-21 Jun Yin , Amilcare Porporato , Lamberto Rondoni

With the global population on the rise, our cities have been expanding to accommodate the growing number of people. The expansion of cities generally leads to the engulfment of peripheral areas. However, such expansion of urban areas is…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-01-09 Sudipan Saha , Tushar Verma , Dario Augusto Borges Oliveira

Urban-induced microclimate variations, such as urban heat islands and air pollution, scale with city size, producing distinctive relations between average climate variables and city-scale quantities (e.g., total population). However, these…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-05-20 Marc Duran-Sala , Martin Hendrick , Gabriele Manoli

A thermodynamic device placed outdoors, or a local ecosystem, is subject to a variety of different temperatures given by short-tem (daily) and long-term (seasonal) variations. In the long term a superstatistical description makes sense,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-07-31 G. Cigdem Yalcin , Christian Beck

The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-07 Claudie Beaulieu , Colin Gallagher , Rebecca Killick , Robert Lund , Xueheng Shi

The Hoover index H, derived from the distribution of population density, has a long history in population geography. But it is prone to misinterpretation and serious measurement artifacts, some of which have been recognized for years. Here…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-05-21 Robin W. Spencer

The strong and continuous increase of AI-based services leads to the steady proliferation of AI data centres worldwide with the unavoidable escalation of their power consumption. It is unknown how this energy demand for computational…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Andrea Marinoni , Erik Cambria , Weisi Lin , Mauro Dalla Mura , Jocelyn Chanussot , Edoardo Ragusa , Chi Yan Tso , Yihao Zhu , Benjamin Horton

New results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and multiple global reanalysis datasets are used to investigate the relationship between the mean and standard deviation in the surface air temperature. A…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-10-09 Richard Davy , Igor Esau

There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2017-02-24 Miklos Vincze , Ion Borcia , Uwe Harlander
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