Related papers: A Proposal to Extend Expected Utility in a Quantum…
We propose an alternative and unifying framework for decision-making that, by using quantum mechanics, provides more generalised cognitive and decision models with the ability to represent more information than classical models. This…
Ergodicity economics is a new branch of economic theory that notes the conceptual difference between time averages and expectation values, which coincide only for ergodic observables. It postulates that individual agents maximise the time…
The von Neumann-Morgenstern (VNM) utility theorem shows that under certain axioms of rationality, decision-making is reduced to maximizing the expectation of some utility function. We extend these axioms to increasingly structured…
Despite the prevalence of voting systems in the real world there is no consensus among researchers of how people vote strategically, even in simple voting settings. This paper addresses this gap by comparing different approaches that have…
In a consideration set model, an individual maximizes utility among the considered alternatives. I relate a consideration set additive random utility model to classic discrete choice and the extended additive random utility model, in which…
Reasoning is key to many decision making processes. It requires consolidating a set of rule-like premises that are often associated with degrees of uncertainty and observations to draw conclusions. In this work, we address both the case…
Deutsch has recently (in quant-ph/9906015) offered a justification, based only on the non-probabilistic axioms of quantum theory and of classical decision theory, for the use of the standard quantum probability rules. In this note, this…
Since its inception, many physicists have seen in quantum mechanics the possibility, if not the necessity, of bringing cognitive aspects into the play, which were instead absent, or unnoticed, in the previous classical theories. In this…
Probabilistic graphical models such as Bayesian Networks are one of the most powerful structures known by the Computer Science community for deriving probabilistic inferences. However, modern cognitive psychology has revealed that human…
Curiosity is a vital metacognitive skill in educational contexts. Yet, little is known about how social factors influence curiosity in group work. We argue that curiosity is evoked not only through individual, but also interpersonal…
Quantum Mechanics (QM) is a very special probabilistic theory, yet we don't know which operational principles make it so. All axiomatization attempts suffer at least one postulate of a mathematical nature. Here I will analyze the…
In this article we propose an approach that models the truth behavior of cognitive entities (i.e. sets of connected propositions) by taking into account in a very explicit way the possible influence of the cognitive person (the one that…
The problem of robust utility maximization in an incomplete market with volatility uncertainty is considered, in the sense that the volatility of the market is only assumed to lie between two given bounds. The set of all possible models…
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) research has primarily focused on closed-book factual question answering (QA), while contextual QA remains unexplored, despite its importance in real-world applications. In this work, we focus on UQ for the…
To more flexibly balance between exploration and exploitation, a new meta-heuristic method based on Uncertainty Principle concepts is proposed in this paper. UP is is proved effective in multiple branches of science. In the branch of…
Bayesian experimental design involves the optimal allocation of resources in an experiment, with the aim of optimising cost and performance. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible,…
The Quantum Decision Theory, developed recently by the authors, is applied to clarify the role of risk and uncertainty in decision making and in particular in relation to the phenomenon of dynamic inconsistency. By formulating this notion…
This paper reports on empirical work aimed at comparing evidential reasoning techniques. While there is prima facie evidence for some conclusions, this i6 work in progress; the present focus is methodology, with the goal that subsequent…
The most commonly accepted model for investors' preferences is expected utility theory. More recently, other theories have emerged and pose new challenges to mathematics. The present paper treats preferences of cumulative prospect theory…
Aggregating risks from multiple sources can be complex and demanding, and decision makers usually adopt heuristics to simplify the evaluation process. This paper axiomatizes two closed related and yet different heuristics, narrow bracketing…