Related papers: Asymptotic properties of the realized skewness and…
Realized moments of higher order computed from intraday returns are introduced in recent years. The literature indicates that realized skewness is an important factor in explaining future asset returns. However, the literature mainly…
Cross-sectional dispersion in firm-level realized skewness is significantly and negatively related to future stock market returns. The predictive power of skewness dispersion is robust to in-sample and out-of-sample estimation and is…
Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…
We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…
Approximate Bayesian computation allows for statistical analysis in models with intractable likelihoods. In this paper we consider the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution obtained by this method. We give general results on…
The Sharpe ratio, which is defined as the ratio of the excess expected return of an investment to its standard deviation, has been widely cited in the financial literature by researchers and practitioners. However, very little attention has…
This paper is concerned with asymptotic behavior of a variety of functionals of increments of continuous semimartingales. Sampling times are assumed to follow a rather general discretization scheme. If an underlying semimartingale is…
This paper expands traditional stochastic volatility models by allowing for time-varying skewness without imposing it. While dynamic asymmetry may capture the likely direction of future asset returns, it comes at the risk of leading to…
Sharp asymptotic lower bounds of the expected quadratic variation of discretization error in stochastic integration are given. The theory relies on inequalities for the kurtosis and skewness of a general random variable which are themselves…
Sharpe ratio is widely used in asset management to compare and benchmark funds and asset managers. It computes the ratio of the excess return over the strategy standard deviation. However, the elements to compute the Sharpe ratio, namely,…
Skewness measures can be used to measure the level of asymmetry of a distribution. Given the prevalence of statistical methods that assume underlying symmetry, and also the desire for symmetry in order to make meaningful judgements for…
M-estimation, aka empirical risk minimization, is at the heart of statistics and machine learning: Classification, regression, location estimation, etc. Asymptotic theory is well understood when the loss satisfies some smoothness…
In the literature, quite a few measures have been proposed for quantifying the deviation of a probability distribution from symmetry. The most popular of these skewness measures are based on the third centralized moment and on quantiles.…
We develop a novel continuous-time asymptotic framework for inference on whether the predictive ability of a given forecast model remains stable over time. We formally define forecast instability from the economic forecaster's perspective…
Asymptotic statistical theory for estimating functions is reviewed in a generality suitable for stochastic processes. Conditions concerning existence of a consistent estimator, uniqueness, rate of convergence, and the asymptotic…
The main goal of this paper is an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal CAPM model we built a general sampling model suitable in…
We develop asymptotic approximations that can be applied to sequential estimation and inference problems, adaptive randomized controlled trials, and related settings. In batched adaptive settings where the decision at one stage can affect…
We study a new measure of codependency in the second moment of a continuous-time multivariate asset price process, which we name the realized copula of volatility. The statistic is based on local volatility estimates constructed from…
The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market's view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast's ability to predict…
Social sampling is a novel randomized message passing protocol inspired by social communication for opinion formation in social networks. In a typical social sampling algorithm, each agent holds a sample from the empirical distribution of…