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The spread of COVID-19 has been thwarted in most countries through non-pharmaceutical interventions. In particular, the most effective measures in this direction have been the stay-at-home and closure strategies of businesses and schools.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-05-04 G. Dimarco , G. Toscani , M. Zanella

We consider a family of controlled reaction-diffusion equations, describing the spatial spreading of an invasive biological species. For a given propagation speed $c\in{I\!\!R}$, we seek a control with minimum cost, which achieves a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-02-21 Alberto Bressan , Minyan Zhang

How to prevent the spread of human diseases is a great challenge for the scientific community and so far there are many studies in which immunization strategies have been developed. However, these kind of strategies usually do not consider…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-08-22 M. A. Di Muro , L. G. Alvarez-Zuzek , S. Havlin , L. A. Braunstein

This paper introduces a new optimal control model to describe and control the dynamics of infectious diseases. In the present model, the average time of isolation (i.e. hospitalization) of infectious population is the main time-dependent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-05-06 Robin J. Evans , Musa Mammadov

We consider the spread of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease through finite populations and derive an expression for the final size distribution. Our derivation allows arbitrary distributions of the number of transmissions…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-07-12 Joel C Miller

We propose a model for the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection with intracellular delay and prove the local asymptotical stability of the equilibrium points. Then we introduce a control function representing the efficiency…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-11-01 Filipe Rodrigues , Cristiana J. Silva , Delfim F. M. Torres , Helmut Maurer

A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-19 Rose Baker

An ultrametric model of epidemic spread of infections based on the classical SIR model is proposed. Ultrametrics on a set of individuals based on theire hierarchical clustering relativly to the average time of infectious contact is…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-21 V. T. Volov , A. P. Zubarev

In this paper, we study a distributed optimal control problem for a diffuse interface model for tumor growth. The model consists of a Cahn-Hilliard type equation for the phase field variable coupled to a reaction diffusion equation for the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-12 Matthias Ebenbeck , Patrik Knopf

Exact solution of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model is derived, and various properties of solution are obtained directly from the exact solution. It is shown that there exists an exact solution of an initial value…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-10-04 Norio Yoshida

We investigate the spread of diseases, computer viruses or information on complex networks and also immunization strategies to prevent or control the spread. When an entire population cannot be immunized and the effect of immunization is…

Physics and Society · Physics 2011-04-14 Shinji Tanimoto

We formulate a general SEIR epidemic model in a heterogenous population characterized by some trait in a discrete or continuous subset of a space R d. The incubation and recovery rates governing the evolution of each homogenous…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-03-03 Luís Almeida , Pierre-Alexandre Bliman , Grégoire Nadin , Benoît Perthame , Nicolas Vauchelet

This paper considers the problem of designing time-dependent, real-time control policies for controllable nonlinear diffusion processes, with the goal of obtaining maximally-informative observations about parameters of interest. More…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-16 Giles Hooker , Kevin K. Lin , Bruce Rogers

A distributed optimal control problem for an extended model of phase field type for tumor growth is addressed. In this model, the chemotaxis effects are also taken into account. The control is realized by two control variables that design…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2021-03-23 Pierluigi Colli , Andrea Signori , Jürgen Sprekels

We study the minimum eradication time problem for controlled Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic models that incorporate vaccination control and time-varying infected and recovery rates. Unlike the SIR model with constant rates,…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-11-27 Jiwoong Jang , Yeoneung Kim

In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-08-02 Kazue Kudo , Kanako Mizuno

In the context of epidemiology, policies for disease control are often devised through a mixture of intuition and brute-force, whereby the set of logically conceivable policies is narrowed down to a small family described by a few…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-10-04 Miguel Navascues , Costantino Budroni , Yelena Guryanova

In this paper we consider SIR epidemics on random graphs with clustering. To incorporate group structure of the underlying social network, we use a generalized version of the configuration model in which each node is a member of a specified…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-15 Carolina Fransson , Pieter Trapman

This paper proposes a novel discrete-time multi-virus susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that captures the spread of competing epidemics over a population network. First, we provide sufficient conditions for the infection level of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-17 Ciyuan Zhang , Sebin Gracy , Tamer Basar , Philip E. Pare

Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-04 Tibor Antal , P. L. Krapivsky