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The monitoring of conflict risk in the humanitarian sector is largely based on simple historic averages. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the potential for using a more statistically rigorous approach to monitor the risk of…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-04 Raiha Browning , Hamish Patten , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

Stochastic process models for spatiotemporal data underlying random fields find substantial utility in a range of scientific disciplines. Subsequent to predictive inference on the values of the random field (or spatial surface indexed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-26 Aritra Halder , Didong Li , Sudipto Banerjee

We develop Bayesian nonparametric models for spatially indexed data of mixed type. Our work is motivated by challenges that occur in environmental epidemiology, where the usual presence of several confounding variables that exhibit complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-17 Georgios Papageorgiou , Sylvia Richardson , Nicky Best

Spatial point processes are used as models in many different fields ranging from ecology and forestry to cosmology and materials science. In recent years, model validation, and in particular goodness-of-fit testing of a proposed point…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Chiara Fend , Claudia Redenbach

Multi-robot systems are essential for environmental monitoring, particularly for tracking spatial phenomena like pollution, soil minerals, and water salinity, and more. This study addresses the challenge of deploying a multi-robot team for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Federico Pratissoli , Mattia Mantovani , Amanda Prorok , Lorenzo Sabattini

Despite its importance for insurance, there is almost no literature on statistical hail damage modeling. Statistical models for hailstorms exist, though they are generally not open-source, but no study appears to have developed a stochastic…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-29 Ophélia Miralles , Anthony C. Davison , Timo Schmid

We propose a score test for dependence predictability in conditional copulas that is robust to temporal instabilities. Our semiparametric procedure accommodates flexible dynamics in the marginal processes and remains agnostic about the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-03 Alexander Mayer , Tatsushi Oka , Dominik Wied

Some scenarios require the computation of a predictive distribution of a new value evaluated on an objective function conditioned on previous observations. We are interested on using a model that makes valid assumptions on the objective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-21 Lucia Asencio-Martín , Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán

In spatial statistics, point processes are often assumed to be isotropic meaning that their distribution is invariant under rotations. Statistical tests for the null hypothesis of isotropy found in the literature are based either on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-17 Chiara Fend , Claudia Redenbach

Hawkes process is one of the most commonly used models for investigating the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. However, seismicity patterns have complicated characteristics due to heterogeneous geology and stresses, for which…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-15 Junhyeon Kwon , Yingcai Zheng , Mikyoung Jun

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-04-08 Maurizio Filippone , Mark Girolami

In this paper we consider a network of spatially distributed sensors which collect measurement samples of a spatial field, and aim at estimating in a distributed way (without any central coordinator) the entire field by suitably fusing all…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-05-23 Francesco Sasso , Angelo Coluccia , Giuseppe Notarstefano

In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-22 Marco Oesting , Raphaël Huser

Exploration-exploitation of functions, that is learning and optimizing a mapping between inputs and expected outputs, is ubiquitous to many real world situations. These situations sometimes require us to avoid certain outcomes at all cost,…

Applications · Statistics 2016-05-17 Eric Schulz , Quentin J. M. Huys , Dominik R. Bach , Maarten Speekenbrink , Andreas Krause

In this thesis we focus on Gaussian quantum metrology in the phase-space formalism and its applications in quantum sensing and the estimation of space-time parameters. We derive new formulae for the optimal estimation of multiple parameters…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-10-13 Dominik Šafránek

Gaussian process models are commonly used as emulators for computer experiments. However, developing a Gaussian process emulator can be computationally prohibitive when the number of experimental samples is even moderately large. Local…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-26 Chih-Li Sung , Robert B. Gramacy , Benjamin Haaland

In this review, the state-of-the-art for goodness-of-fit testing for spatial point processes is summarized. Test statistics based on classical functional summary statistics and recent contributions from topological data analysis are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Chiara Fend , Claudia Redenbach

Very large spatio-temporal lattice data are becoming increasingly common across a variety of disciplines. However, estimating interdependence across space and time in large areal datasets remains challenging, as existing approaches are…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-20 Philipp Hunziker , Julian Wucherpfennig , Aya Kachi , Nils-Christian Bormann

We develop and analyze a method for stochastic simulation optimization based on Gaussian process models within a trust-region framework. We focus on settings where the variance of the objective function is large, making accurate estimation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Mickael Binois , Jeffrey Larson

In many contexts such as queuing theory, spatial statistics, geostatistics and meteorology, data are observed at irregular spatial positions. One model of this situation involves considering the observation points as generated by a Poisson…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-07 Tucker McElroy , Dimitris N. Politis