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As data-driven predictive models are increasingly used to inform decisions, it has been argued that decision makers should provide explanations that help individuals understand what would have to change for these decisions to be beneficial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Stratis Tsirtsis , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Unlike traditional supervised learning, in many settings only partial feedback is available. We may only observe outcomes for the chosen actions, but not the counterfactual outcomes associated with other alternatives. Such settings…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-09 Ruijiang Gao , Max Biggs , Wei Sun , Ligong Han

Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-07 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

While state-of-the-art NLP models have been achieving the excellent performance of a wide range of tasks in recent years, important questions are being raised about their robustness and their underlying sensitivity to systematic biases that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-03-25 Linyi Yang , Jiazheng Li , Pádraig Cunningham , Yue Zhang , Barry Smyth , Ruihai Dong

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 Judith J. Lok

We study the problem of learning a good set of policies, so that when combined together, they can solve a wide variety of unseen reinforcement learning tasks with no or very little new data. Specifically, we consider the framework of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Safa Alver , Doina Precup

Counterfactual reasoning is an important paradigm applicable in many fields, such as healthcare, economics, and education. In this work, we propose a novel method to address the issue of \textit{selection bias}. We learn two groups of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Zichen Zhang , Qingfeng Lan , Lei Ding , Yue Wang , Negar Hassanpour , Russell Greiner

The problem of individualization is recognized as crucial in almost every field. Identifying causes of effects in specific events is likewise essential for accurate decision making. However, such estimates invoke counterfactual…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott Mueller , Ang Li , Judea Pearl

Building interpretable parameterizations of real-world decision-making on the basis of demonstrated behavior -- i.e. trajectories of observations and actions made by an expert maximizing some unknown reward function -- is essential for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-31 Ioana Bica , Daniel Jarrett , Alihan Hüyük , Mihaela van der Schaar

Structural models that admit multiple reduced forms, such as game-theoretic models with multiple equilibria, pose challenges in practice, especially when parameters are set-identified and the identified set is large. In such cases,…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-29 Nathan Canen , Kyungchul Song

We hypothesize that optimal system responses emerge from adaptive strategies grounded in causal and counterfactual knowledge. Counterfactual inference allows us to create hypothetical scenarios to examine the effects of alternative system…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Donghuo Zeng , Roberto Legaspi , Yuewen Sun , Xinshuai Dong , Kazushi Ikeda , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

Counterfactual Explanations are becoming a de-facto standard in post-hoc interpretable machine learning. For a given classifier and an instance classified in an undesired class, its counterfactual explanation corresponds to small…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Veronica Piccialli , Dolores Romero Morales , Cecilia Salvatore

We propose a general framework for sequential and dynamic acquisition of useful information in order to solve a particular task. While our goal could in principle be tackled by general reinforcement learning, our particular setting is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-02-09 He He , Paul Mineiro , Nikos Karampatziakis

There is a broad consensus on the importance of deep learning models in tasks involving complex data. Often, an adequate understanding of these models is required when focusing on the transparency of decisions in human-critical…

Work in Counterfactual Explanations tends to focus on the principle of "the closest possible world" that identifies small changes leading to the desired outcome. In this paper we argue that while this approach might initially seem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Rafael Poyiadzi , Kacper Sokol , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Tijl De Bie , Peter Flach

Counterfactual learning from observational data involves learning a classifier on an entire population based on data that is observed conditioned on a selection policy. This work considers this problem in an active setting, where the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Songbai Yan , Kamalika Chaudhuri , Tara Javidi

Choosing optimal (or at least better) policies is an important problem in domains from medicine to education to finance and many others. One approach to this problem is through controlled experiments/trials - but controlled experiments are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-02-26 Onur Atan , William R. Zame , M van der Schaar

This paper proposes a method for estimating consumer preferences among discrete choices, where the consumer chooses at most one product in a category, but selects from multiple categories in parallel. The consumer's utility is additive in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Rob Donnelly , Francisco R. Ruiz , David Blei , Susan Athey

Efficient methods to evaluate new algorithms are critical for improving interactive bandit and reinforcement learning systems such as recommendation systems. A/B tests are reliable, but are time- and money-consuming, and entail a risk of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Yusuke Narita , Shota Yasui , Kohei Yata

Traditional approaches to data visualization have often focused on comparing different subsets of data, and this is reflected in the many techniques developed and evaluated over the years for visual comparison. Similarly, common workflows…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-02-27 David Borland , Arran Zeyu Wang , David Gotz