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Discrete diffusion models offer a promising alternative to autoregressive generation through parallel decoding, but they suffer from a sampling wall: once categorical sampling occurs, rich distributional information collapses into one-hot…
We consider the problem of distributed multi-choice voting in a setting that each node can communicate with its neighbors merely by sending beep signals. Given its simplicity, the beep communication model is of practical importance in…
This paper contributes to an emerging literature that models votes and text in tandem to better understand polarization of expressed preferences. It introduces a new approach to estimate preference polarization in multidimensional settings,…
Accurate modeling of opinion dynamics has the potential to help us understand polarization and what makes effective political discourse possible or impossible. Here, we use physics-based methods to model the evolution of political opinions…
Multi-persona debate systems powered by large language models (LLMs) show promise in reducing confirmation bias, which can fuel echo chambers and social polarization. However, empirical evidence remains limited on whether they meaningfully…
Online social networks have become primary means of communication. As they often exhibit undesirable effects such as hostility, polarisation or echo chambers, it is crucial to develop analytical tools that help us better understand them. In…
Distilled diffusion models generate images in far fewer timesteps but suffer from reduced sample diversity when generating multiple outputs from the same prompt. To understand this phenomenon, we first investigate whether distillation…
We consider the task of filtering a dynamic parameter evolving as a diffusion process, given data collected at discrete times from a likelihood which is conjugate to the marginal law of the diffusion, when a generic dual process on a…
Many existing approaches for generating predictions in settings with distribution shift model distribution shifts as adversarial or low-rank in suitable representations. In various real-world settings, however, we might expect shifts to…
This paper presents a discrete-event stochastic model for the redistribution of indistinguishable personal items, exemplified by socks, among multiple cohabitants sharing a communal laundry system. Drawing on concepts from ecological…
When analyzing data from multiple sources, it is often convenient to strike a careful balance between two goals: capturing the heterogeneity of the samples and sharing information across them. We introduce a novel framework to model a…
We consider two-opinion voter models on dense dynamic random graphs. Our goal is to understand and describe the occurrence of consensus versus polarisation over long periods of time. The former means that all vertices have the same opinion,…
Decades of research suggest that information exchange in groups and organizations can reliably improve judgment accuracy in tasks such as financial forecasting, market research, and medical decision-making. However, we show that improving…
One distinctive and pervasive aspect of social systems is the fact that they comprise several kinds of agents. Thus, in order to draw parallels with physical systems one is lead to consider binary (or multi-component) compounds. Recent…
Diffusion of a two component fluid is studied in the framework of differential equations, but where these equations are systematically derived from a well-defined microscopic model. The model has a finite carrying capacity imposed upon it…
This paper introduces a generalised opinion model that extends the standard DeGroot model by representing agents' opinions and influences as soft constraints rather than single real values. This allows for modelling scenarios beyond the…
We study a general aggregation problem in which a society has to determine its position on each of several issues, based on the positions of the members of the society on those issues. There is a prescribed set of feasible evaluations,…
We analyse a generalisation of the Galam model of binary opinion dynamics in which iterative discussions take place in local groups of individuals and study the effects of random deviations from the group majority. The probability of a…
Are we as a society getting more polarized, and if so, why? We try to answer this question through a model of opinion formation. Empirical studies have shown that homophily results in polarization. However, we show that DeGroot's well-known…
Direct democracy is a special case of an ensemble of classifiers, where every person (classifier) votes on every issue. This fails when the average voter competence (classifier accuracy) falls below 50%, which can happen in noisy settings…