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We derive a Bayesian framework for incorporating selection effects into population analyses. We allow for both measurement uncertainty in individual measurements and, crucially, for selection biases on the population of measurements, and…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-04-10 Ilya Mandel , Will M. Farr , Jonathan R. Gair

The problem of Bayes minimax estimation for the mean of a multivariate normal distribution under quadratic loss has attracted significant attention recently. These estimators have the advantageous property of being admissible, similar to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-13 Dominique Fourdrinier , William E. Strawderman , Martin T. Wells

The problem of estimating location (scale) parameters $\theta_1$ and $\theta_2$ of two distributions when the ordering between them is known apriori (say, $\theta_1\leq \theta_2$) has been extensively studied in the literature. Many of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-05 Naresh Garg , Neeraj Misra

In this paper we construct optimal, in certain sense, estimates of values of linear functionals on solutions to two-point boundary value problems (BVPs) for systems of linear first-order ordinary differential equations from observations…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2009-12-16 Olexandr Nakonechnyi , Yury Podlipenko , Yury Shestopalov

In this paper we propose a semi-parametric Bayesian Generalized Least Squares estimator. In a generic setting where each error is a vector, the parametric Generalized Least Square estimator maintains the assumption that each error vector…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-01 Ruochen Wu , Melvyn Weeks

Bayesian estimation is a powerful theoretical paradigm for the operation of quantum sensors. However, the Bayesian method for statistical inference generally suffers from demanding calibration requirements that have so far restricted its…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-09-22 Samuel P. Nolan , Augusto Smerzi , Luca Pezzè

We present a Bayesian inference methodology for the estimation of orbital parameters on single-line spectroscopic binaries with astrometric data, based on the No-U-Turn sampler Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Our approach is designed to…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-04-27 Miguel Videla , Rene A. Mendez , Ruben M. Claveria , Jorge F. Silva , Marcos E. Orchard

The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Federico Bassetti

The present article derives the minimal number $N$ of observations needed to consider a Bayesian posterior distribution as Gaussian. Two examples are presented. Within one of them, a chi-squared distribution, the observable $x$ as well as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-03 Christoph Fuhrmann , Hanns Ludwig Harney , Klaus Harney , Andreas Müller

The Cram\'er-Rao bound serves as a crucial lower limit for the mean squared error of an estimator in frequentist parameter estimation. Paradoxically, it requires highly accurate prior knowledge of the estimated parameter for constructing…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-21 Javier Navarro , Ricard Ravell Rodríguez , Mikel Sanz

The paper concerns small-area estimation in the Fay-Herriot type area-level model with random dispersions, which models the case that the sampling errors change from area to area. The resulting Bayes estimator shrinks both means and…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-30 Hiromasa Tamae , Tatsuya Kubokawa

In this paper we take up Bayesian inference in general multivariate stable distributions. We exploit the representation of Matsui and Takemura (2009) for univariate projections, and the representation of the distributions in terms of their…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-28 Mike G. Tsionas

We compare the accuracy, precision and reliability of different methods for estimating key system parameters for two-level systems subject to Hamiltonian evolution and decoherence. It is demonstrated that the use of Bayesian modelling and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-10-15 Sophie Schirmer , Frank Langbein

We present posterior distributions of parameters that characterize the nonperturbative initial input for the Balitsky-Kovchegov evolution equation. The BK equation evolves an initial dipole-target scattering amplitude at moderate…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-07-16 Carlisle Casuga , Mikko Karhunen , Heikki Mäntysaari

We study a simple model of unsupervised learning where the single symmetry breaking vector has binary components $\pm 1$. We calculate exactly the Bayes-optimal performance of an estimator which is required to lie in the same discrete…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-31 M. Copelli , C. Van den Broeck , M. Opper

The Bayesian approach to machine learning amounts to computing posterior distributions of random variables from a probabilistic model of how the variables are related (that is, a prior distribution) and a set of observations of variables.…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-07-01 Johannes Borgström , Andrew D Gordon , Michael Greenberg , James Margetson , Jurgen Van Gael

Many psychological theories can be operationalized as linear inequality constraints on the parameters of multinomial distributions (e.g., discrete choice analysis). These constraints can be described in two equivalent ways: Either as the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-23 Daniel W. Heck , Clintin P. Davis-Stober

The quantum Fisher information matrix (QFIM) is the cornerstone of multiparameter quantum metrology. In this work, we investigate multiparameter quantum estimation in baryon-antibaryon (B bar-B) pairs produced via the e+ e- -> J/psi -> B…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-21 Elhabib Jaloum , Mohamed Amazioug

We study admissibility of a subclass of generalized Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal vector when the variance is unknown, under scaled quadratic loss. Minimaxity is also established for certain of these estimators.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-20 Yuzo Maruyama , William E. Strawderman

Misestimates of $\sigma_{P_o}$, the \emph{uncertainty} in $P_o$ from a 2-state Bayes equation used for binary classification, apparently arose from $\hat{\sigma}_{p_i}$, the uncertainty in underlying pdfs estimated from experimental $b$-bin…

Computation · Statistics 2016-02-02 Jonathan Malcolm Friedman