Related papers: MixedTrails: Bayesian hypothesis comparison on het…
Random walks serve as important tools for studying complex network structures, yet their dynamics in cases where transition probabilities are not static remain under explored and poorly understood. Here we study nonlinear random walks that…
The structure of complex networks can be characterized by counting and analyzing network motifs. Motifs are small subgraphs that occur repeatedly in a network, such as triangles or chains. Recent work has generalized motifs to temporal and…
Standard linear modeling approaches make potentially simplistic assumptions regarding the structure of categorical effects that may obfuscate more complex relationships governing data. For example, recent work focused on the two-way…
We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…
How to estimate heterogeneity, e.g. the effect of some variable differing across observations, is a key question in political science. Methods for doing so make simplifying assumptions about the underlying nature of the heterogeneity to…
To analyze the impacts of certain types of public health interventions we need to estimate the treatment effects and outcomes as these apply to heterogeneous open populations. Dynamically modifying populations containing risk groups that…
A common practice to account for psychophysical biases in vision is to frame them as consequences of a dynamic process relying on optimal inference with respect to a generative model. The present study details the complete formulation of…
Observational data about human behavior is often heterogeneous, i.e., generated by subgroups within the population under study that vary in size and behavior. Heterogeneity predisposes analysis to Simpson's paradox, whereby the trends…
A new statistical based model approach to characterize a user's behavior in an Internet access link is presented. The real patterns of Internet traffic in a heterogeneous Campus Network are studied. We find three clearly different patterns…
Continuous mixtures of distributions are widely employed in the statistical literature as models for phenomena with highly divergent outcomes; in particular, many familiar heavy-tailed distributions arise naturally as mixtures of…
The effect of bias on hypothesis formation is characterized for an automated data-driven projection pursuit neural network to extract and select features for binary classification of data streams. This intelligent exploratory process…
Studying the neurological, genetic and evolutionary basis of human vocal communication mechanisms using animal vocalization models is an important field of neuroscience. The data sets typically comprise structured sequences of syllables or…
On roads showing significant violations of posted speed limits, one measure of the safety effect of speeding is the difference between the road's actual accident count and the count that would have occurred if the posted speed limit had…
Disruptions are an inherent feature of transportation systems, occurring unpredictably and with varying durations. Even after an incident is reported as resolved, disruptions can induce irregular train operations that generate substantial…
Moving groups are routinely faced with a choice of different routes as part of their daily lives, such as choosing between exits from a building. Differences in moving speeds and environmental constraints often lead to individuals being…
Relational event network data are becoming increasingly available. Consequently, statistical models for such data have also surfaced. These models mainly focus on the analysis of single networks, while in many applications, multiple…
This paper addresses the problem of community detection in networked data that combines link and content analysis. Most existing work combines link and content information by a generative model. There are two major shortcomings with the…
We are interested in learning how listeners perceive sounds as having human origins. An experiment was performed with a series of electronically synthesized sounds, and listeners were asked to compare them in pairs. We propose a Bayesian…
According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its…
Predicting future bus trip chains for an existing user is of great significance for operators of public transit systems. Existing methods always treat this task as a time-series prediction problem, but the 1-dimensional time series…