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This work introduces the minimax Laplace transform method, a modification of the cumulant-based matrix Laplace transform method developed in "User-friendly tail bounds for sums of random matrices" (arXiv:1004.4389v6) that yields both upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-22 Alex Gittens , Joel A. Tropp

We characterise the learning of a mixture of two clouds of data points with generic centroids via empirical risk minimisation in the high dimensional regime, under the assumptions of generic convex loss and convex regularisation. Each cloud…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Urte Adomaityte , Gabriele Sicuro , Pierpaolo Vivo

Tail dependence models for distributions attracted to a max-stable law are fitted using observations above a high threshold. To cope with spatial, high-dimensional data, a rank-based M-estimator is proposed relying on bivariate margins…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-12 John Einmahl , Anna Kiriliouk , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

Codifference is a commonly used measure of dependence for stable vectors and processes for which covariance is infinite. However, we argue that it can also be used for other heavy-tail distributions and it provides useful information for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-17 Jakub Ślęzak

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-23 Cees de Valk

We consider a $p$-dimensional time series where the dimension $p$ increases with the sample size $n$. The resulting data matrix $X$ follows a stochastic volatility model: each entry consists of a positive random volatility term multiplied…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-15 Johannes Heiny , Thomas Mikosch

The probabilistic characterization of the relationship between two or more random variables calls for a notion of dependence. Dependence modeling leads to mathematical and statistical challenges, and recent developments in extremal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Giovanni Puccetti , Ruodu Wang

In this paper we study precise large deviations for the partial sums of a stationary sequence with a subexponential marginal distribution. Our main focus is on distributions which either have a regularly varying or a lognormal-type tail. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-15 Thomas Mikosch , Igor Rodionov

This paper studies kernel ridge regression in high dimensions under covariate shifts and analyzes the role of importance re-weighting. We first derive the asymptotic expansion of high dimensional kernels under covariate shifts. By a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-06 Yihang Chen , Fanghui Liu , Taiji Suzuki , Volkan Cevher

Multivariate extreme value theory is concerned with modeling the joint tail behavior of several random variables. Existing work mostly focuses on asymptotic dependence, where the probability of observing a large value in one of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-11 Michaël Lalancette , Sebastian Engelke , Stanislav Volgushev

The concept of intermediate tail dependence is useful if one wants to quantify the degree of positive dependence in the tails when there is no strong evidence of presence of the usual tail dependence. We first review existing studies on…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-12-05 Lei Hua , Harry Joe

A recent body of work has demonstrated that Transformer embeddings can be linearly decomposed into well-defined sums of factors, that can in turn be related to specific network inputs or components. There is however still a dearth of work…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-12 Timothee Mickus , Raúl Vázquez

In the world of multivariate extremes, estimation of the dependence structure still presents a challenge and an interesting problem. A procedure for the bivariate case is presented that opens the road to a similar way of handling the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-11-14 John H. J. Einmahl , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

Among bivariate tail dependence measures, the tail dependence coefficient has emerged as the popular choice. Akin to the correlation matrix, a multivariate dependence measure is constructed using these bivariate measures, and this is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-02 Nariankadu D. Shyamalkumar , Siyang Tao

High-dimensional time series has diverse applications in econometrics and finance. Recent models for capturing temporal dependence have employed a bilinear representation for matrix time series, or the Tucker-decomposition based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Debika Ghosh , Samrat Roy , Nilanjana Chakraborty

We introduce a dimension-free Bernstein-type tail inequality for self-normalised martingales, where the normalisation uses the predictable quadratic variation and the radius depends on the information gain of the observed covariance. As…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Arya Akhavan , Amitis Shidani , Alex Ayoub , David Janz

We establish a statistical learning theoretical framework aimed at extrapolation, or out-of-domain generalization, on the unobserved tails of covariates in continuous regression problems. Our strategy involves performing statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-15 Stephan Clémençon , Nathan Huet , Anne Sabourin

We introduce a statistical model for operational losses based on heavy-tailed distributions and bipartite graphs, which captures the event type and business line structure of operational risk data. The model explicitly takes into account…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-11 Oliver Kley , Claudia Klüppelberg , Sandra Paterlini

We develop a generalisation of disentanglement in VAEs---decomposition of the latent representation---characterising it as the fulfilment of two factors: a) the latent encodings of the data having an appropriate level of overlap, and b) the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-13 Emile Mathieu , Tom Rainforth , N. Siddharth , Yee Whye Teh

Gaussian scale mixtures are constructed as Gaussian processes with a random variance. They have non-Gaussian marginals and can exhibit asymptotic dependence unlike Gaussian processes, which are asymptotically independent except in the case…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-31 Raphael Huser , Thomas Opitz , Emeric Thibaud
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