Related papers: Extremal Quantile Regression: An Overview
Quantile regression models provide a wide picture of the conditional distributions of the response variable by capturing the effect of the covariates at different quantile levels. In most applications, the parametric form of those…
We develop an extreme value framework for CoVaR centered on $v(q \mid p ; C)$, the copula-adjusted probability level, or equivalently, the CoVaR on the uniform (0,1) scale. We characterize the possible tail regimes of $v(q \mid p ; C)$…
The univariate extreme value theory deals with the convergence in type of powers of elements of sequences of cumulative distribution functions on the real line when the power index gets infinite. In terms of convergence of random variables,…
In this article we show the relationship between the Pareto distribution and the gamma distribution. This shows that the second one, appropriately extended, explains some anomalies that arise in the practical use of extreme value theory.…
Quantile regression is a statistical method for estimating conditional quantiles of a response variable. In addition, for mean estimation, it is well known that quantile regression is more robust to outliers than $l_2$-based methods. By…
We propose a vector generalized additive modeling framework for taking into account the effect of covariates on angular density functions in a multivariate extreme value context. The proposed methods are tailored for settings where the…
We propose an extreme dimension reduction method extending the Extreme-PLS approach to the case where the covariate lies in a possibly infinite-dimensional Hilbert space. The ideas are partly borrowed from both Partial Least-Squares and…
On the basis of Nelson-Aalen nonparametric estimator of the cumulative distribution function, we provide a weak approximation to tail product-limit process for randomly right-censored heavy-tailed data. In this context, a new consistent…
Estimating the tail index parameter is one of the primal objectives in extreme value theory. For heavy-tailed distributions the Hill estimator is the most popular way to estimate the tail index parameter. Improving the Hill estimator was…
We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…
Causal questions are omnipresent in many scientific problems. While much progress has been made in the analysis of causal relationships between random variables, these methods are not well suited if the causal mechanisms only manifest…
This book chapter illustrates how to apply extreme value statistics to financial time series data. Such data often exhibits strong serial dependence, which complicates assessment of tail risks. We discuss the two main approches to tail risk…
The notion of expectiles, originally introduced in the context of testing for homoscedasticity and conditional symmetry of the error distribution in linear regression, induces a law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure that has…
We introduce a rigorous mathematical framework for Granger causality in extremes, designed to identify causal links from extreme events in time series. Granger causality plays a pivotal role in uncovering directional relationships among…
Data-driven anomaly detection methods typically build a model for the normal behavior of the target system, and score each data instance with respect to this model. A threshold is invariably needed to identify data instances with high (or…
In the multivariate setting, estimates of extremal risk measures are important in many contexts, such as environmental planning and structural engineering. In this paper, we propose new estimation methods for extremal bivariate return…
This paper develops a semi-parametric procedure for estimation of unconditional quantile partial effects using quantile regression coefficients. The estimator is based on an identification result showing that, for continuous covariates,…
Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost…
Recently attention has been drawn to practical problems with the use of unbounded Pareto distributions, for instance when there are natural upper bounds that truncate the probability tail. Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006) derived the…
The possibilities of the use of the coefficient of variation over a high threshold in tail modelling are discussed. The paper also considers multiple threshold tests for a generalized Pareto distribution, together with a threshold selection…