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We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-06 Mikkel Bennedsen , Asger Lunde , Mikko S. Pakkanen

We address the shot noise in the tunneling current through a localized spin, pertaining to recent experiments on magnetic adatoms and single molecular magnets. We show that both uncorrelated and spin-correlated scattering processes…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2018-03-16 S. Pradhan , J. Fransson

Based on a criterion of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model has been obtained with the volatility process driven by fractional noise. Depending on whether the stochasticity…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-05 R. Vilela Mendes , M. J. Oliveira , A. M. Rodrigues

We consider the problem of testing the parametric form of the volatility for high frequency data. It is demonstrated that in the presence of microstructure noise commonly used tests do not keep the preassigned level and are inconsistent.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-26 Mathias Vetter , Holger Dette

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. These models are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-19 Anubha Goel , Puneet Pasricha , Martin Magris , Juho Kanniainen

Equity options are known to be notoriously difficult to price accurately, and even with the development of established mathematical models there are many assumptions that must be made about the underlying processes driving market movements.…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-24 Adam Wu

This overview article concerns the notion of fractional smoothness of random variables of the form $g(X_T)$, where $X=(X_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$ is a certain diffusion process. We review the connection to the real interpolation theory, give…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-04-22 Stefan Geiss , Emmanuel Gobet

This paper presents a novel one-factor stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous volatility of the asset log-return is a diffusion with a quadratic drift and a linear dispersion function. The instantaneous volatility mean reverts…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-21 Peter Carr , Sander Willems

This paper focuses on stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) under two-time-scale formulation. Distinct from the work in the existing literature, the systems are driven by $\alpha$-stable processes with $\alpha \in(1,2)$. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-30 Jianhai Bao , George Yin , Chenggui Yuan

In this paper, we focus on the estimation of historical volatility of asset prices from high-frequency data. Stochastic volatility models pose a major statistical challenge: since in reality historical volatility is not observable, its…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-27 Camilla Damian , Rüdiger Frey

It is a well established result that, in classical dynamical systems with sufficient time-scale separation, the fast chaotic degrees of freedom are well modeled by (Gaussian) white noise. In this paper, we present the stochastic dynamical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-12-06 Jun Chul Park

Multiple tracers of the same surveyed volume can enhance the signal-to-noise on a measurement of local primordial non-Gaussianity and the relativistic projections. Increasing the number of tracers comparably increases the number of shot…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-06-11 Dimitry Ginzburg , Vincent Desjacques

Recently, the so-called next-generation neural mass models have received a lot of attention of the researchers in the field of mathematical neuroscience. The ability of these models to account for the degree of synchrony in neural…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2022-05-05 Vladimir Klinshov , Sergey Kirillov

This paper considers the problem of robust adaptive efficient estimating of a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with the dependent noises given by a general square integrable semimartingale with a conditionally…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Evgeny Pchelintsev , Serguei Pergamenshchikov

We study stochastic volatility models in which the volatility process is a function of a continuous fractional stochastic process, which is an integral transform of the solution of an SDE satisfying the Yamada-Watanabe condition. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-31 Stefan Gerhold , Christoph Gerstenecker , Archil Gulisashvili

We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-02 Georgi Dinolov , Abel Rodriguez , Hongyun Wang

We establish new conditions for obtaining uniform bounds on the moments of discrete-time stochastic processes. Our results require a weak negative drift criterion along with a state-dependent restriction on the sizes of the one-step jumps…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-02 Arnab Ganguly , Debasish Chatterjee

Using the 'drift-diffusion-Langevin' equation we show that, at least in one geometry, finite-frequency shot noise is of the order of the 'full' shot noise $2eI$ provided the sample is either short or long enough, $L > L_0(\omega)$. Here…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Y. Naveh

This paper considers a simulation-based estimator for a general class of Markovian processes and explores some strong consistency properties of the estimator. The estimation problem is defined over a continuum of invariant distributions…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-14 Manuel S. Santos

This paper does not suppose a priori that the evolution of the price of a financial asset is a semimartingale. Since possible strategies of investors are self-financing, previous prices are forced to be finite quadratic variation processes.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-30 Rosanna Coviello , Cristina Di Girolami , Francesco Russo