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Probabilistic modeling of multidimensional spatiotemporal data is critical to many real-world applications. As real-world spatiotemporal data often exhibits complex dependencies that are nonstationary and nonseparable, developing effective…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-01 Mengying Lei , Aurelie Labbe , Lijun Sun

We introduce non-stationary Mat\'ern field priors with stochastic partial differential equations, and construct correlation length-scaling with hyperpriors. We model both the hyperprior and the Mat\'ern prior as continuous-parameter random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-12 Lassi Roininen , Mark Girolami , Sari Lasanen , Markku Markkanen

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Xiaohao Cai , Jason D. McEwen , Marcelo Pereyra

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Alberto Caimo , Isabella Gollini

Expert systems applications that involve uncertain inference can be represented by a multidimensional contingency table. These tables offer a general approach to inferring with uncertain evidence, because they can embody any form of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 David S. Vaughan , Bruce M. Perrin , Robert M. Yadrick , Peter D. Holden , Karl G. Kempf

The brms package allows R users to easily specify a wide range of Bayesian single-level and multilevel models, which are fitted with the probabilistic programming language Stan behind the scenes. Several response distributions are…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-17 Paul-Christian Bürkner

This paper explores Bayesian estimation for categorical data, focusing on simple yet effective models that provide a foundation for applying more advanced methods accurately and reliably in real-world applications. We begin by revisiting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Jan Kalina

Variation in the evolutionary process across the sites of nucleotide sequence alignments is well established, and is an increasingly pervasive feature of datasets composed of gene regions sampled from multiple loci and/or different genomes.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-09-04 Brian R. Moore , Jim McGuire , Fredrik Ronquist , John P. Huelsenbeck

We propose a Bayesian inference approach for a class of latent Markov models. These models are widely used for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data, when the interest is in studying the evolution of an individual unobservable…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-05 Francesco Bartolucci , Silvia Pandolfi

Multistage ranking models, including the popular Plackett-Luce distribution (PL), rely on the assumption that the ranking process is performed sequentially, by assigning the positions from the top to the bottom one (forward order). A recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-17 Cristina Mollica , Luca Tardella

This paper is about the use of the Wallenius noncentral hypergeometric distribution for analysing contingency tables with two or more groups and two categories and with row margins and sample size, that is both margins, fixed. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-12 Linda M. Haines

To improve the predictability of complex computational models in the experimentally-unknown domains, we propose a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework utilizing the Dirichlet distribution that combines results of several…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-06 Vojtech Kejzlar , Léo Neufcourt , Witold Nazarewicz

Multilevel compositional data, such as data sampled over time that are non-negative and sum to a constant value, are common in various fields. However, there is currently no software specifically built to model compositional data in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Flora Le , Dorothea Dumuid , Tyman E. Stanford , Joshua F. Wiley

ProfileGLMM is an R package integrating Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) as the outcome model for Bayesian profile regression. This statistical framework simultaneously i) explains the variation in the outcome and ii) clusters the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Matteo Amestoy , Mark A. van de Wiel , Wessel N. van Wieringen

The Bayesian Conjugate Gradient method (BayesCG) is a probabilistic generalization of the Conjugate Gradient method (CG) for solving linear systems with real symmetric positive definite coefficient matrices. Our CG-based implementation of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-04 Tim W. Reid , Ilse C. F. Ipsen , Jon Cockayne , Chris J. Oates

This study is concerned with estimating the inequality measures associated with the underlying hypothetical income distribution from the times series grouped data on the Lorenz curve. We adopt the Dirichlet pseudo likelihood approach where…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-20 Genya Kobayashi , Yuta Yamauchi , Kazuhiko Kakamu , Yuki Kawakubo , Shonosuke Sugasawa

The INLA approach for approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models has been shown to give fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals and also to be a valuable tool in practice via the R-package R-INLA. In this paper we…

Computation · Statistics 2013-02-21 Thiago G. Martins , Daniel Simpson , Finn Lindgren , Håvard Rue

Bayesian networks (BN) are directed acyclic graphical (DAG) models that have been adopted into many fields for their strengths in transparency, interpretability, probabilistic reasoning, and causal modeling. Given a set of data, one hurdle…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Christian D. Blakely

We introduce the concept of conjugate prior models for a given likelihood function in Bayesian spatial inversion. The conjugate class of prior models can be selection extended and still remain conjugate. We demonstrate the generality of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-06 Henning Omre , Kjartan Rimstad

Berger et al. (2001) and Ren et al. (2012) derived noninformative priors for Gaussian process models of spatially correlated data using the reference prior approach (Berger, Bernardo, 1991). The priors have good statistical properties and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-19 Ryan Burn