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Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an…
We present a spatial, individual-based predator-prey model in which dispersal is dependent on the local community. We determine species suitability to the biotic conditions of their local environment through a time and space varying fitness…
Epidemic data often possess certain characteristics, such as the presence of many zeros, the spatial nature of the disease spread mechanism or environmental noise. This paper addresses these issues via suitable Bayesian modelling. In doing…
Outbreaks of infectious diseases present a global threat to human health and are considered a major health-care challenge. One major driver for the rapid spatial spread of diseases is human mobility. In particular, the travel patterns of…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches. The first approach, generally known as compartmental modeling, addresses the time evolution of disease propagation at the…
This manuscript introduces a new analytical approach for studying the time evolution of disease spread on a finite size network. Our methodology can accommodate any disease with a general infectivity profile. This new approach is able to…
Most spreading processes require spatial proximity between agents. The stationary state of spreading dynamics in a population of mobile agents thus depends on the interplay between the time and length scales involved in the epidemic process…
Models of the spatial distribution of animals provide useful tools to help ecologists quantify species-environment relationships, and they are increasingly being used to help determine the impacts of climate and habitat changes on species.…
Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…
With the exponential growth in the world population and the constant increase in human mobility, the danger of outbreaks of epidemics is rising. Especially in high density urban areas such as public transport and transfer points, where…
With the advancement of GPS and remote sensing technologies, large amounts of geospatial and spatiotemporal data are being collected from various domains, driving the need for effective and efficient prediction methods. Given spatial data…
Background: Animal trade plays an important role for the spread of infectious diseases in livestock populations. As a case study, we consider pig trade in Germany, where trade actors (agricultural premises) form a complex network. The…
The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties of spreading processes and affect the condition for large-scale propagation, as encoded in the epidemic threshold. Despite the great interest in the…
Non-communicable diseases like diabetes, obesity and certain forms of cancer have been increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…
Mathematical disease modelling has long operated under the assumption that any one infectious disease is caused by one transmissible pathogen spreading among a population. This paradigm has been useful in simplifying the biological reality…
Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important…
The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…
Spatio-temporal extensions of familiar compartment models for disease transmission incorporating diffusive behavior, or interactions between individuals at separate locations, are explored. The models considered have the character of…