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When evaluating and comparing models using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), the uncertainty of the estimate is typically assessed using the variance of the sampling distribution. Considering the uncertainty is important, as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-16 Tuomas Sivula , Måns Magnusson , Aki Vehtari

Let $Y$ be a Gaussian vector whose components are independent with a common unknown variance. We consider the problem of estimating the mean $\mu$ of $Y$ by model selection. More precisely, we start with a collection…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-03 Yannick Baraud , Christophe Giraud , Sylvie Huet

Estimation of the prediction error of a linear estimation rule is difficult if the data analyst also use data to select a set of variables and construct the estimation rule using only the selected variables. In this work, we propose an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-13 Xiaoying Tian Harris

We derive a maximum a posteriori estimator for the linear observation model, where the signal and noise covariance matrices are both uncertain. The uncertainties are treated probabilistically by modeling the covariance matrices with prior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-12 Dave Zachariah , Nafiseh Shariati , Mats Bengtsson , Magnus Jansson , Saikat Chatterjee

This paper discusses the problem of determining optimal designs for regression models, when the observations are dependent and taken on an interval. A complete solution of this challenging optimal design problem is given for a broad class…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-25 Holger Dette , Andrey Pepelyshev , Anatoly Zhigljavsky

In many practical parameter estimation problems, such as coefficient estimation of polynomial regression, the true model is unknown and thus, a model selection step is performed prior to estimation. The data-based model selection step…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-30 Elad Meir , Tirza Routtenberg

Extracting classical information from quantum systems is of fundamental importance, and classical shadows allow us to extract a large amount of information using relatively few measurements. Conventional shadow estimators are unbiased and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-03 Zhenyu Cai , Adrian Chapman , Hamza Jnane , Bálint Koczor

We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-03-04 Hado van Hasselt

This paper studies nonparametric empirical Bayes methods in a heterogeneous parameters framework that features unknown means and variances. We provide extended Tweedie's formulae that express the (infeasible) optimal estimators of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-04 Sheng Chao Ho

We present general principles for the design and analysis of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators in a wide range of settings. Our estimators posses finite work-normalized variance under mild regularity conditions. We apply our estimators to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-23 Jose H. Blanchet , Peter W. Glynn , Yanan Pei

We present a new method for high-dimensional linear regression when a scale parameter of the additive errors is unknown. The proposed estimator is based on a penalized Huber $M$-estimator, for which theoretical results on estimation error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-07 Po-Ling Loh

While the ordinary least squares estimator (OLSE) is still the most used estimator in linear regression models, other estimators can be more efficient when the error distribution is not Gaussian. In this paper, our goal is to evaluate this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-31 Fadoua Balabdaoui , Justine Leclerc

Debiased estimation has long been an area of research in the group testing literature. This has led to the development of several estimators with the goal of bias minimization and, recently, an unbiased estimator based on sequential…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-08 Gregory Haber , Yaakov Malinovsky

The goal of this paper is to characterize the best achievable performance for the problem of estimating an unknown parameter having a sparse representation. Specifically, we consider the setting in which a sparsely representable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Zvika Ben-Haim , Yonina C. Eldar

Estimating and detecting faults is crucial in ensuring safe and efficient automated systems. In the presence of disturbances, noise or varying system dynamics, such estimation is even more challenging. To address this challenge, this…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-13 Chris van der Ploeg , Emilia Silvas , Nathan van de Wouw , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani

This paper deals with the robust estimation problem of a signal given noisy observations. We assume that the actual statistics of the signal and observations belong to a ball about the nominal statistics. This ball is formed by placing a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-05-02 Mattia Zorzi

We derive mean-unbiased estimators for the structural parameter in instrumental variables models with a single endogenous regressor where the sign of one or more first stage coefficients is known. In the case with a single instrument, there…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-05 Isaiah Andrews , Timothy B. Armstrong

The exact expression is derived for the expected value, $< {p_i}> $, for the parameter for any bin $i$ of a histogram following a multinomial distribution derived by sorting $N$ observations into bins of $B$ classes, if $n_i$ of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-03-18 Jonathan M. Friedman

The choice of the parameter value for regularized inverse problems is critical to the results and remains a topic of interest. This article explores a criterion for selecting a good parameter value by maximizing the probability of the data,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Toby Sanders , Rodrigo B. Platte , Robert D. Skeel

This paper proposes a recursive interval-valued estimation framework for identifying the parameters of linearly parameterized systems which may be slowly time-varying. It is assumed that the model error (which may consist in measurement…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-22 Laurent Bako , Seydi Ndiaye , Eric Blanco