Related papers: An Epidemiological Mechanistic Model of Box Office…
Portfolio management is one of the unresponded problems of the Motion Pictures Industry (MPI). To design an optimal portfolio for an MPI distributor, it is essential to predict the box office of each project. Moreover, for an accurate box…
Human activities increasingly take place in online environments, providing novel opportunities for relating individual behaviours to population-level outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a simple generative model for the collective…
For a binary choice problem, the spatial coordination of decisions in an agent community is investigated both analytically and by means of stochastic computer simulations. The individual decisions are based on different local information…
Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…
In this paper we propose a macro-dynamic age-structured set-up for the analysis of epidemics/economic dynamics in continuous time. The resulting optimal control problem is reformulated in an infinite dimensional Hilbert space framework…
When opinion spread is studied, peer pressure is often modeled by interactions of more than two individuals (higher-order interactions). In our work, we introduce a two-layer random hypergraph model, in which hyperedges represent households…
A new modeling framework for bipartite social networks arising from a sequence of partially time-ordered relational events is proposed. We directly model the joint distribution of the binary variables indicating if each single actor is…
We show that the simplest stochastic epidemiological models with spatial correlations exhibit two types of oscillatory behaviour in the endemic phase. In a large parameter range, the oscillations are due to resonant amplification of…
Using available data from the New York stock market (NYSM) we test four different bi-parametric models to fit the correspondent volume-price distributions at each $10$-minute lag: the Gamma distribution, the inverse Gamma distribution, the…
The effects of demographic stochasticity in the long term behaviour of endemic infectious diseases have been considered for long as a necessary addition to an underlying deterministic theory. The latter would explain the regular behaviour…
We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are…
Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…
We propose to learn a probabilistic motion model from a sequence of images. Besides spatio-temporal registration, our method offers to predict motion from a limited number of frames, useful for temporal super-resolution. The model is based…
Traditional epidemic detection algorithms make decisions using only local information. We propose a novel approach that explicitly models spatial information fusion from several metapopulations. Our method also takes into account…
The spread of new ideas, behaviors or technologies has been extensively studied using epidemic models. Here we consider a model of diffusion where the individuals' behavior is the result of a strategic choice. We study a simple coordination…
In the present paper, we identify several distributions from Physics and study their applicability to phenomena such as distribution of income, wealth, and expenditure. Firstly, we apply logistic distribution to these data and we find that…
In some systems, the behavior of the constituent units can create a `context' that modifies the direct interactions among them. This mechanism of indirect modification inspired us to develop a minimal model of context-dependent spreading.…
Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time…
Epidemic dynamics in a stochastic network of interacting epidemic centers is considered. The epidemic and migration processes are modelled by Markov's chains. Explicit formulas for probability distribution of the migration process are…
In this work we define a kinetic model for understanding the impact of heterogeneous opinion formation dynamics on epidemics. The considered many-agent system is characterized by nonsymmetric interactions which define a coupled system of…