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Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-14 Baron Michael , Malov Sergey

We study sequential change-point detection for spatio-temporal point processes, where actionable detection requires not only identifying when a distributional change occurs but also localizing where it manifests in space. While classical…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Wenbin Zhou , Liyan Xie , Shixiang Zhu

Testing for change points in sequences of covariance matrices is an important and equally challenging problem in statistical methodology with applications in various fields. Motivated by the observation that even in cases where the ratio…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Nina Dörnemann , Holger Dette

Modeling functions that are sequentially observed as functional time series is becoming increasingly common. In such models, it is often crucial to ensure data homogeneity. We investigate the sensitivity of graph-based change point…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Jeremy VanderDoes , Shojaeddin Chenouri

This paper develops change-point methods for the spectrum of a locally stationary time series. We focus on series with a bounded spectral density that change smoothly under the null hypothesis but exhibits change-points or becomes less…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-08 Alessandro Casini , Pierre Perron

Detecting change-points in data is challenging because of the range of possible types of change and types of behaviour of data when there is no change. Statistically efficient methods for detecting a change will depend on both of these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-29 Jie Li , Paul Fearnhead , Piotr Fryzlewicz , Tengyao Wang

A restrictive assumption in change point analysis is "stationarity under the null hypothesis of no change-point", which is crucial for asymptotic theory but not very realistic from a practical point of view. For example, if change point…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-01 Holger Dette , Weichi Wu , Zhou Zhou

This paper studies methods for testing and estimating change-points in the covariance structure of a high-dimensional linear time series. The assumed framework allows for a large class of multivariate linear processes (including vector…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-14 Ansgar Steland

We study the problem of detecting and localizing multiple changes in the mean parameter of a Banach space-valued time series. The goal is to construct a collection of narrow confidence intervals, each containing at least one (or exactly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Tim Kutta , Holger Dette , Shixuan Wang

Classical change point analysis aims at (1) detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a possibly non-stationary time series and at (2) identifying regions where the mean exhibits a piecewise constant behavior. In many applications however, it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-17 Axel Bücher , Holger Dette , Florian Heinrichs

We study the problem of detecting a common change point in large panel data based on a mean shift model, wherein the errors exhibit both temporal and cross-sectional dependence. A least squares based procedure is used to estimate the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-26 Monika Bhattacharjee , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michailidis

We derive tests of stationarity for univariate time series by combining change-point tests sensitive to changes in the contemporary distribution with tests sensitive to changes in the serial dependence. The proposed approach relies on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-21 Axel Bücher , Jean-David Fermanian , Ivan Kojadinovic

In this paper, change-point problems for long memory stochastic volatility models are considered. A general testing problem which includes various alternative hypotheses is discussed. Under the hypothesis of stationarity the limiting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-21 Annika Betken , Rafał Kulik

We propose a novel and unified framework for change-point estimation in multivariate time series. The proposed method is fully nonparametric, enjoys effortless tuning and is robust to temporal dependence. One salient and distinct feature of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-12 Zifeng Zhao , Feiyu Jiang , Xiaofeng Shao

This paper concerns about the limiting distributions of change point estimators, in a high-dimensional linear regression time series context, where a regression object $(y_t, X_t) \in \mathbb{R} \times \mathbb{R}^p$ is observed at every…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-03 Haotian Xu , Daren Wang , Zifeng Zhao , Yi Yu

Change-points in time series data are usually defined as the time instants at which changes in their properties occur. Detecting change-points is critical in a number of applications as diverse as detecting credit card and insurance frauds,…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-09-10 André Ferrari , Cédric Richard , Anthony Bourrier , Ikram Bouchikhi

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Davis Berlind , Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

In this paper easily applicable techniques are devised for detecting changepoints in autocorrelated Gaussian sequences. Our method proceeds by sequential evaluation of a CUSUM-type test statistic, which is compared to a predefined…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-09 W. Ellens , J. Kuhn , M. Mandjes , P. Żuraniewski

Tests for structural breaks in time series should ideally be sensitive to breaks in the parameter of interest, while being robust to nuisance changes. Statistical analysis thus needs to allow for some form of nonstationarity under the null…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Fabian Mies

We propose a general framework of sequential testing procedures based on $U$-statistics which contains as an example a sequential CUSUM test based on differences in mean but also includes a robust sequential Wilcoxon change point procedure.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-19 Claudia Kirch , Christina Stoehr