Related papers: Prediction with a Short Memory
The ability to predict the intentions of people based solely on their visual actions is a skill only performed by humans and animals. The intelligence of current computer algorithms has not reached this level of complexity, but there are…
In this paper, we propose an algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous hidden Markov model from aggregate observations. This problem arises when only the population level counts of the number of individuals at each time…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are one of the most fundamental and widely used statistical tools for modeling discrete time series. In general, learning HMMs from data is computationally hard (under cryptographic assumptions), and…
Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…
Consider the problem of predicting the next symbol given a sample path of length n, whose joint distribution belongs to a distribution class that may have long-term memory. The goal is to compete with the conditional predictor that knows…
As a model for an on-line classification setting we consider a stochastic process $(X_{-n},Y_{-n})_{n}$, the present time-point being denoted by 0, with observables $ \ldots,X_{-n},X_{-n+1},\ldots, X_{-1}, X_0$ from which the pattern $Y_0$…
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the most widely used statistical models for sequential data analysis. One of the key reasons for this versatility is the ability of HMM to deal with missing data. However, standard HMM learning…
We consider a model of selective prediction, where the prediction algorithm is given a data sequence in an online fashion and asked to predict a pre-specified statistic of the upcoming data points. The algorithm is allowed to choose when to…
We consider a class of filtering problems for large populations where each individual is modeled by the same hidden Markov model (HMM). In this paper, we focus on aggregate inference problems in HMMs with discrete state space and continuous…
Time series and sequential data have gained significant attention recently since many real-world processes in various domains such as finance, education, biology, and engineering can be modeled as time series. Although many algorithms and…
Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of…
Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to…
We present a new algorithm for identifying the transition and emission probabilities of a hidden Markov model (HMM) from the emitted data. Expectation-maximization becomes computationally prohibitive for long observation records, which are…
This paper is concerned with the computational complexity of learning the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Although HMMs are some of the most widely used tools in sequential and time series modeling, they are cryptographically hard to learn in…
We present an efficient exact algorithm for estimating state sequences from outputs (or observations) in imprecise hidden Markov models (iHMM), where both the uncertainty linking one state to the next, and that linking a state to its…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are popular models to identify a finite number of latent states from sequential data. However, fitting them to large data sets can be computationally demanding because most likelihood maximization techniques…
Variable order sequence modeling is an important problem in artificial and natural intelligence. While overcomplete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), in theory, have the capacity to represent long-term temporal structure, they often fail to…
Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…
We consider Hidden Markov Models that emit sequences of observations that are drawn from continuous distributions. For example, such a model may emit a sequence of numbers, each of which is drawn from a uniform distribution, but the support…
The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence…