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We analyse a multilevel Monte Carlo method for the approximation of distribution functions of univariate random variables. Since, by assumption, the target distribution is not known explicitly, approximations have to be used. We provide an…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-22 Mike B. Giles , Tigran Nagapetyan , Klaus Ritter

In this paper we address the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions in stochastic kinetic models (SKMs). SKMs are multivariate Markov jump processes that model the interactions among species in…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-22 Eugenia Koblents , Joaquín Míguez

We consider the problem of approximating a function in general nonlinear subsets of $L^2$ when only a weighted Monte Carlo estimate of the $L^2$-norm can be computed. Of particular interest in this setting is the concept of sample…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-12 Philipp Trunschke

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful method for drawing samples from non-standard probability distributions and is utilized across many fields and disciplines. Methods such as Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Hamiltonian…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-28 Lee Devlin , Paul Horridge , Peter L. Green , Simon Maskell

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference, system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov chain with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Luca Martino , Victor Elvira

Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, or Particle Filters, are Bayesian filtering algorithms which propagate in time a discrete and random approximation of the a posteriori distribution of interest. Such algorithms are based on Importance…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-11 Roland Lamberti , Yohan Petetin , François Desbouvries , François Septier

This paper concerns the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior sampling in Bayesian nonparametric mixture models with normalized random measure priors. Making use of some recent posterior characterizations for the class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-03 Stefano Favaro , Yee Whye Teh

Training neural samplers directly from unnormalized densities without access to target distribution samples presents a significant challenge. A critical desideratum in these settings is achieving comprehensive mode coverage, ensuring the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Chenguang Wang , Xiaoyu Zhang , Kaiyuan Cui , Weichen Zhao , Yongtao Guan , Tianshu Yu

Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) has recently been proposed by Liang, Liu and Carroll [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305--320] as a general simulation and optimization algorithm. In this paper, we propose to improve its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-26 Faming Liang

For training an encoder network to perform amortized variational inference, the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from the exact posterior to its approximation, known as the inclusive or forward KL, is an increasingly popular choice of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Declan McNamara , Jackson Loper , Jeffrey Regier

Employing Bayesian inference to calibrate constitutive model parameters has grown substantially in recent years. Among the available techniques, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling remains one of the most widely used approaches for…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Aricia Rinkens , Rodrigo L. S. Silva , Erik Quaeghebeur , Nick Jaensson , Clemens Verhoosel

SMC (Sequential Monte Carlo) is a class of Monte Carlo algorithms for filtering and related sequential problems. Gerber and Chopin (2015) introduced SQMC (Sequential quasi-Monte Carlo), a QMC version of SMC. This paper has two objectives:…

Computation · Statistics 2017-06-19 Nicolas Chopin , Mathieu Gerber

Drawing a sample from a discrete distribution is one of the building components for Monte Carlo methods. Like other sampling algorithms, discrete sampling suffers from the high computational burden in large-scale inference problems. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-04-29 Yutian Chen , Zoubin Ghahramani

We introduce Preconditioned Monte Carlo (PMC), a novel Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference that facilitates efficient sampling of probability distributions with non-trivial geometry. PMC utilises a Normalising Flow (NF) in order to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-08-24 Minas Karamanis , Florian Beutler , John A. Peacock , David Nabergoj , Uros Seljak

The Multilevel Monte Carlo method is an efficient variance reduction technique. It uses a sequence of coarse approximations to reduce the computational cost in uncertainty quantification applications. The method is nowadays often considered…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-15 Pieterjan Robbe , Dirk Nuyens , Stefan Vandewalle

To sample from a general target distribution $p_*\propto e^{-f_*}$ beyond the isoperimetric condition, Huang et al. (2023) proposed to perform sampling through reverse diffusion, giving rise to Diffusion-based Monte Carlo (DMC).…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-15 Xunpeng Huang , Difan Zou , Hanze Dong , Yian Ma , Tong Zhang

In a recent paper Beskos et al (2011), the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler introduced in Del Moral et al (2006), Neal (2001) has been shown to be asymptotically stable in the dimension of the state space d at a cost that is only…

Computation · Statistics 2011-12-08 Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nick Whiteley

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-08 Gianluca Cubadda , Francesco Giancaterini , Stefano Grassi

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-18 Giacomo Zanella , Gareth Roberts

Sequential Monte Carlo has become a standard tool for Bayesian Inference of complex models. This approach can be computationally demanding, especially when initialized from the prior distribution. On the other hand, deter-ministic…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-26 Sophie Donnet , Stéphane Robin