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Gaussian belief propagation (GBP) is a recursive computation method that is widely used in inference for computing marginal distributions efficiently. Depending on how the factorization of the underlying joint Gaussian distribution is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-01-22 Jian Du , Shaodan Ma , Yik-Chung Wu , Soummya Kar , José M. F. Moura

Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) is a theoretically promising approach for black-box optimization; however, the confidence parameter $\beta$ is considerably large in the theorem and chosen heuristically in practice. Then,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Shion Takeno , Yu Inatsu , Masayuki Karasuyama

A powerful tool for the analysis of nonrandomized observational studies has been the potential outcomes model. Utilization of this framework allows analysts to estimate average treatment effects. This article considers the situation in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-31 Debashis Ghosh , Efrén Cruz-Cortés

Modeling sequential data has become more and more important in practice. Some applications are autonomous driving, virtual sensors and weather forecasting. To model such systems, so called recurrent models are frequently used. In this paper…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-01 Roman Föll , Bernard Haasdonk , Markus Hanselmann , Holger Ulmer

Inference for probabilistic graphical models is still very much a practical challenge in large domains. The commonly used and effective belief propagation (BP) algorithm and its generalizations often do not converge when applied to hard,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Gal Elidan , Ian McGraw , Daphne Koller

We consider the analysis of continuous repeated measurement outcomes that are collected through time, also known as longitudinal data. A standard framework for analysing data of this kind is a linear Gaussian mixed-effects model within…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-10 Özgür Asar , David Bolin , Peter J. Diggle , Jonas Wallin

This paper explores improvements in prediction accuracy and inference capability when allowing for potential correlation in team-level random effects across multiple game-level responses from different assumed distributions. First-order and…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-01 Jennifer E. Broatch , Andrew T. Karl

The R package abn is designed to fit additive Bayesian models to observational datasets. It contains routines to score Bayesian networks based on Bayesian or information theoretic formulations of generalized linear models. It is equipped…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-21 Gilles Kratzer , Fraser Iain Lewis , Arianna Comin , Marta Pittavino , Reinhard Furrer

Disaggregation modelling, or downscaling, has become an important discipline in epidemiology. Surveillance data, aggregated over large regions, is becoming more common, leading to an increasing demand for modelling frameworks that can deal…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-15 Anita K. Nandi , Tim C. D. Lucas , Rohan Arambepola , Peter Gething , Daniel J. Weiss

Many inferential tasks involve fitting models to observed data and predicting outcomes at new covariate values, requiring interpolation or extrapolation. Conventional methods select a single best-fitting model, discarding fits that were…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Soonhong Cho , Doeun Kim , Chad Hazlett

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used as distributions of random effects in linear mixed models, which are fit using the restricted likelihood or the closely-related Bayesian analysis. This article addresses two problems. First, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-04 Maitreyee Bose , James S. Hodges , Sudipto Banerjee

We present a (selective) review of recent frequentist high-dimensional inference methods for constructing $p$-values and confidence intervals in linear and generalized linear models. We include a broad, comparative empirical study which…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-11 Ruben Dezeure , Peter Bühlmann , Lukas Meier , Nicolai Meinshausen

The composition of multiple Gaussian Processes as a Deep Gaussian Process (DGP) enables a deep probabilistic nonparametric approach to flexibly tackle complex machine learning problems with sound quantification of uncertainty. Existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-02 Kurt Cutajar , Edwin V. Bonilla , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is a popular method for estimating the parameter posterior distribution for complex statistical models and stochastic processes that possess a computationally intractable likelihood function. Instead of…

Computation · Statistics 2019-07-26 Ziwen An , Leah F South , Christopher Drovandi

Background. The bootComb R package allows researchers to derive confidence intervals with correct target coverage for arbitrary combinations of arbitrary numbers of independently estimated parameters. Previous versions (< 1.1.0) of bootComb…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-03 Marc Yves Romain Henrion

The R package merlin performs flexible joint modelling of hierarchical multi-outcome data. Increasingly, multiple longitudinal biomarker measurements, possibly censored time-to-event outcomes and baseline characteristics are available.…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-29 Emma C. Martin , Alessandro Gasparini , Michael J. Crowther

The R Package IBMPopSim aims to simulate the random evolution of heterogeneous populations using stochastic Individual-Based Models (IBMs). The package enables users to simulate population evolution, in which individuals are characterized…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-02-28 Daphné Giorgi , Sarah Kaakai , Vincent Lemaire

Hierarchical Bayesian Poisson regression models (HBPRMs) provide a flexible modeling approach of the relationship between predictors and count response variables. The applications of HBPRMs to large-scale datasets require efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-03 Jin-Zhu Yu , Hiba Baroud

Robust estimation provides essential tools for analyzing data that contain outliers, ensuring that statistical models remain reliable even in the presence of some anomalous data. While robust methods have long been available in R, users of…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-05 Sarah Leyder , Jakob Raymaekers , Peter J. Rousseeuw , Thomas Servotte , Tim Verdonck

When random effects are correlated with sample design variables, the usual approach of employing individual survey weights (constructed to be inversely proportional to the unit survey inclusion probabilities) to form a pseudo-likelihood no…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-26 Terrance D. Savitsky , Matthew R. Williams