Related papers: Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimat…

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive…

Bayesian inference can quantify uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks using posterior distributions for model parameters and network output. By looking at these posterior distributions, one can separate the origin of uncertainty…

The increasingly wide use of deep machine learning techniques in computational mechanics has significantly accelerated simulations of problems that were considered unapproachable just a few years ago. However, in critical applications such…

Assessing the predictive uncertainty of deep neural networks is crucial for safety-related applications of deep learning. Although Bayesian deep learning offers a principled framework for estimating model uncertainty, the common approaches…

Deep neural networks tend to underestimate uncertainty and produce overly confident predictions. Recently proposed solutions, such as MC Dropout and SDENet, require complex training and/or auxiliary out-of-distribution data. We propose a…

Recent work has focused on data-driven learning of the evolution of unknown systems via deep neural networks (DNNs), with the goal of conducting long time prediction of the evolution of the unknown system. Training a DNN with low…

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) can estimate the uncertainty in predictions, as opposed to non-Bayesian neural networks (NNs). However, BNNs have been far less widely used than non-Bayesian NNs in practice since they need iterative NN…

Deep neural networks offer numerous potential applications across geoscience, for example, one could argue that they are the state-of-the-art method for predicting faults in seismic datasets. In quantitative reservoir characterization…

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Uncertainty estimation is an essential step in the evaluation of the robustness for deep learning models in computer vision, especially when applied in risk-sensitive areas. However, most state-of-the-art deep learning models either fail to…

Learning in uncertain, noisy, or adversarial environments is a challenging task for deep neural networks (DNNs). We propose a new theoretically grounded and efficient approach for robust learning that builds upon Bayesian estimation and…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) promise improved generalization under covariate shift by providing principled probabilistic representations of epistemic uncertainty. However, weight-based BNNs often struggle with high computational…

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have become one of the promising approaches for uncertainty estimation due to the solid theorical foundations. However, the performance of BNNs is affected by the ability of catching uncertainty. Instead of…

This paper presents a probabilistic framework to obtain both reliable and fast uncertainty estimates for predictions with Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Our main contribution is a practical and principled combination of DNNs with sparse…

The use of ensembles of neural networks (NNs) for the quantification of predictive uncertainty is widespread. However, the current justification is intuitive rather than analytical. This work proposes one minor modification to the normal…

Neural network (NN) ensembles can reduce large prediction variance of NN and improve prediction accuracy. For highly nonlinear problems with insufficient data set, the prediction accuracy of NN models becomes unstable, resulting in a…

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainty by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have focused…

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainties by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes…

Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…