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Computing systems interacting with real-world processes must safely and reliably process uncertain data. The Monte Carlo method is a popular approach for computing with such uncertain values. This article introduces a framework for…

Process monitoring and control requires detection of structural changes in a data stream in real time. This article introduces an efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm designed for learning unknown changepoints in continuous time. The…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-29 Melissa J. M. Turcotte , Nicholas A. Heard

Complex scientific models where the likelihood cannot be evaluated present a challenge for statistical inference. Over the past two decades, a wide range of algorithms have been proposed for learning parameters in computationally feasible…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-16 Aden Forrow , Ruth E. Baker

The efficient evaluation of high-dimensional integrals is of importance in both theoretical and practical fields of science, such as data science, statistical physics, and machine learning. However, exact computation methods suffer from the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-15 Radislav Vaisman , Robert Salomone , Dirk P. Kroese

We present a novel approach for finding and evaluating structural models of small metallic nanoparticles. Rather than fitting a single model with many degrees of freedom, the approach algorithmically builds libraries of nanoparticle…

Statistical methods such as sequential Monte Carlo Methods were proposed for detection, segmentation and tracking of objects in digital images. A similar approach, called Shape Particle Filters was introduced for the segmentation of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-06-23 Z. Bardosi , D. Granata , G. Lugos , A. P. Tafti , S. Saxena

We introduce a new online approach for constructing proposal distributions in particle filters using a forward scheme. Our method progressively incorporates future observations to refine proposals. This is in contrast to backward-scheme…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-23 Sylvain Procope-Mamert , Nicolas Chopin , Maud Delattre , Guillaume Kon Kam King

Increasing availability of vehicle GPS data has created potentially transformative opportunities for traffic management, route planning and other location-based services. Critical to the utility of the data is their accuracy. Map-matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-30 Kira Kempinska , Toby Davies , John Shawe-Taylor

We introduce a `virtual-move' Monte Carlo (VMMC) algorithm for systems of pairwise-interacting particles. This algorithm facilitates the simulation of particles possessing attractions of short range and arbitrary strength and geometry, an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Stephen Whitelam , Phillip L. Geissler

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to sample from posterior distributions when the likelihood function is unavailable or intractable, as is often the case in biological systems. ABC methods suffer from inefficient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-03 Charlie Rogers-Smith , Henri Pesonen , Samuel Kaski

This paper presents a novel approach to estimate the Standard Model backgrounds based on modifying Monte Carlo predictions within their systematic uncertainties. The improved background model is obtained by altering the original predictions…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2009-11-23 S. Caron , G. Cowan , E. Gross , S. Horner , J. E. Sundermann

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-02 Richard G Everitt , Richard Culliford , Felipe Medina-Aguayo , Daniel J Wilson

In this article, a novel cluster analysis algorithm was employed in the study of polymer coil to globule transition via single chain Monte Carlo simulations. The algorithm, which has been recently applied in Molecular Dynamics simulations…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2013-11-21 T. E. Raptis , Vasilios E. Raptis

We introduce a new Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for efficient sampling of highly correlated and multimodal posteriors. Parallel tempering, though effective, is a costly technique for sampling such posteriors. Our…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2014-10-01 Benjamin Farr , Vicky Kalogera , Erik Luijten

In recent years, a better understanding of the Monte Carlo method has provided us with many new techniques in different areas of statistical physics. Of particular interest are so called cluster methods, which exploit the considerable…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Werner Krauth

When calculating satellite trajectories in low-earth orbit, engineers need to adequately estimate aerodynamic forces. But to this day, obtaining the drag acting on the complicated shapes of modern spacecraft suffers from many sources of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2013-12-16 J. Brent Parham , L. A. Barba

In recent years, large-scale Bayesian learning draws a great deal of attention. However, in big-data era, the amount of data we face is growing much faster than our ability to deal with it. Fortunately, it is observed that large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-15 Qianqian Song

Inference for partially observed Markov process models has been a longstanding methodological challenge with many scientific and engineering applications. Iterated filtering algorithms maximize the likelihood function for partially observed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-26 Edward L. Ionides , Anindya Bhadra , Yves Atchadé , Aaron King

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular inference method when likelihoods are hard to come by. Practical bottlenecks of ABC applications include selecting statistics that summarize the data without losing too much information or…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-15 Khanh N. Dinh , Cécile Liu , Zijin Xiang , Zhihan Liu , Simon Tavaré

Standard quantum amplitude estimation algorithms provide quadratic speedup to Monte-Carlo simulations but require a circuit depth that scales as inverse of the estimation error. In view of the shallow depth in near-term devices, the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-10-03 Dinh-Long Vu , Bin Cheng , Patrick Rebentrost
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