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We consider the problem of designing efficient particle filters for twisted Feynman--Kac models. Particle filters using twisted models can deliver low error approximations of statistical quantities and such twisting functions can be learnt…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-09 Joshua J Bon , Christopher Drovandi , Anthony Lee

Coupled cluster theory is a vital cornerstone of electronic structure theory and is being applied to ever-larger systems. Stochastic approaches to quantum chemistry have grown in importance and offer compelling advantages over traditional…

This presentation will introduce the audience to a new, emerging body of research on sequential Monte Carlo techniques in robotics. In recent years, particle filters have solved several hard perceptual robotic problems. Early successes were…

Robotics · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Sebastian Thrun

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, constitute a class of algorithms used to approximate expectations with respect to a sequence of probability distributions as well as the normalising constants of those…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-14 Axel Finke , Arnaud Doucet , Adam M. Johansen

Model comparison for the purposes of selection, averaging and validation is a problem found throughout statistics. Within the Bayesian paradigm, these problems all require the calculation of the posterior probabilities of models within a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-08 Yan Zhou , Adam M Johansen , John A D Aston

We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-31 Dan Crisan , Joaquin Miguez

Statisticians often use Monte Carlo methods to approximate probability distributions, primarily with Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are a class of algorithms that combine both techniques to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-20 Chenguang Dai , Jeremy Heng , Pierre E. Jacob , Nick Whiteley

The implicit particle filter is a sequential Monte Carlo method for data assimilation that guides the particles to the high-probability regions via a sequence of steps that includes minimizations. We present a new and more general…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-02-01 Ethan Atkins , Matthias Morzfeld , Alexandre J. Chorin

Discrete mixture models are routinely used for density estimation and clustering. While conducting inferences on the cluster-specific parameters, current frequentist and Bayesian methods often encounter problems when clusters are placed too…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-21 Francesca Petralia , Vinayak Rao , David B. Dunson

In many problems, complex non-Gaussian and/or nonlinear models are required to accurately describe a physical system of interest. In such cases, Monte Carlo algorithms are remarkably flexible and extremely powerful approaches to solve such…

Computation · Statistics 2015-04-23 Thi Le Thu Nguyen , Francois Septier , Gareth W. Peters , Yves Delignon

In online clustering problems, there is often a large amount of uncertainty over possible cluster assignments that cannot be resolved until more data are observed. This difficulty is compounded when clusters follow complex distributions, as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-17 Connie Trojan , Pavel Myshkov , Paul Fearnhead , James Hensman , Tom Minka , Christopher Nemeth

Twisted particle filters are a class of sequential Monte Carlo methods recently introduced by Whiteley and Lee to improve the efficiency of marginal likelihood estimation in state-space models. The purpose of this article is to extend the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-30 Juha Ala-Luhtala , Nick Whiteley , Kari Heine , Robert Piche

A series of novel filters for probabilistic inference that propose an alternative way of performing Bayesian updates, called particle flow filters, have been attracting recent interest. These filters provide approximate solutions to…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-24 Flávio Eler De Melo , Simon Maskell , Matteo Fasiolo , Fred Daum

We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade. The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional particle filtering algorithms. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to…

Computation · Statistics 2014-07-11 Brooks Paige , Frank Wood , Arnaud Doucet , Yee Whye Teh

Through the Bayesian lens of data assimilation, uncertainty on model parameters is traditionally quantified through the posterior covariance matrix. However, in modern settings involving high-dimensional and computationally expensive…

Computation · Statistics 2023-11-16 Michael Stanley , Mikael Kuusela , Brendan Byrne , Junjie Liu

We introduce neural particle smoothing, a sequential Monte Carlo method for sampling annotations of an input string from a given probability model. In contrast to conventional particle filtering algorithms, we train a proposal distribution…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-05-01 Chu-Cheng Lin , Jason Eisner

Proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a novel construct that lies at the intersection of Bayesian computation and convex optimization, which helped popularize the use of nondifferentiable priors in Bayesian statistics. Existing formulations…

Computation · Statistics 2023-01-24 Qiang Heng , Hua Zhou , Eric C. Chi

Modern parallel computing devices, such as the graphics processing unit (GPU), have gained significant traction in scientific and statistical computing. They are particularly well-suited to data-parallel algorithms such as the particle…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-12 Lawrence M. Murray , Anthony Lee , Pierre E. Jacob

Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms (also known as particle filters) are popular methods to approximate filtering (and related) distributions of state-space models. However, they converge at the slow $1/\sqrt{N}$ rate, which may be an issue…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-06 Nicolas Chopin , Mathieu Gerber

In the last decade, sequential Monte-Carlo methods (SMC) emerged as a key tool in computational statistics. These algorithms approximate a sequence of distributions by a sequence of weighted empirical measures associated to a weighted…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 R. Douc , France E. Moulines