Related papers: A SICA compartmental model in epidemiology with ap…

The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…

HIV transmission within serodiscordant couples remains a significant public health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimating the rate of such infection, alongside the rates of introduction of infection from outside the…

Mathematical modeling of biological systems is crucial to effectively and efficiently developing treatments for medical conditions that plague humanity. Often, systems of ordinary differential equations are a traditional tool used to…

This paper considers a mathematical model based on the transmission dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. In addition to the usual compartments for susceptible, exposed, and infected individuals, this model includes compartments…

The Cuban contact-tracing detection system set up in 1986 allowed the reconstruction and analysis of the sexual network underlying the epidemic (5,389 vertices and 4,073 edges, giant component of 2,386 nodes and 3,168 edges), shedding light…

In this paper, we construct a model to describe the transmission of HIV in a homogeneous host population. By considering the specific mechanism of HIV, we derive a model structured in three successive stages: (i) primary infection, (ii)…

We propose and study a shifted SICA epidemic model, extending the one of Silva and Torres (2017) to the stochastic setting driven by both Brownian motion processes and jump L\'evy noise. L\'evy noise perturbations are usually ignored by…

This paper presents a mathematical model to investigate co-infection with HIV/AIDS and zika virus (ZIKV) in Colombia and Brazil, where the first cases were reported in 2015-2016. The model considers the sexual transmission dynamics of both…

HIV is a deadly virus transmitted either through having of unprotected sex, mother to child transmission, sharing of unsterilized objects that is capable of making cut or wounds on the body, through blood or bodily fluid transmission. AIDS…

The United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a target to ensure that 15 million HIV-positive people in the world would be receiving combination anti-retroviral treatment (ART) by 2015. This target is likely to be reached…

We show that disease transmission models in a spatially heterogeneous environment can have a large number of coexisting endemic equilibria. A general compartmental model is considered to describe the spread of an infectious disease in a…

Missing data is a recurrent issue in epidemiology where the infection process may be partially observed. Approximate Bayesian Computation, an alternative to data imputation methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration, is proposed…

Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by sparse, uneven data. We analyze data from 199 countries for female sex workers (FSW), men who…

In this paper, we investigate a novel 3-compartment model of HIV infection of CD4$^+$ T-cells with a mass action term by including two versions: one baseline ODE model and one delay-differential equation (DDE) model with a constant discrete…

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…

Reports from the Health Department in the Philippines show that cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) are increasing despite management and control efforts by the government. Worldwide, the Philippines has one of the fastest growing…

A central challenge in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) public health policy lies in determining whether to universally expand treatment access, despite the risk of sub-optimal adherence and consequent drug resistance, or to adopt a more…

With a 676% growth rate in HIV incidence between 2010 and 2021, the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Philippines is the one that is spreading the quickest in the western Pacific. Although the full effects of COVID-19 on HIV services and development…

This study utilizes mathematical models to assess progress toward achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets aimed at managing and eradicating HIV/AIDS. It contrasts stochastic and deterministic models, focusing on their utility in…

Understanding historical trends in the epidemic of HIV is important for assessing current and projecting future trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality and for evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of control measures. In…