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We study the maximum of a Brownian motion with a parabolic drift; this is a random variable that often occurs as a limit of the maximum of discrete processes whose expectations have a maximum at an interior point. We give series expansions…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-02-03 Svante Janson , Guy Louchard , Anders Martin-Löf

A parameter estimation problem is considered for a diagonaliazable stochastic evolution equation using a finite number of the Fourier coefficients of the solution. The equation is driven by additive noise that is white in space and…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-04-03 Igor Cialenco , Sergey Lototsky , Jan Pospisil

Graphical models with bi-directed edges (<->) represent marginal independence: the absence of an edge between two vertices indicates that the corresponding variables are marginally independent. In this paper, we consider maximum likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-12-12 Mathias Drton , Thomas S. Richardson

The paper deals with projection estimators of the density of the stationary solution $X$ to a differential equation driven by the fractional Brownian motion under a dissipativity condition on the drift function. A model selection method is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Nicolas Marie

In this paper we consider the drift estimation problem for a general differential equation driven by an additive multidimensional fractional Brownian motion, under ergodic assumptions on the drift coefficient. Our estimation procedure is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-16 Fabien Panloup , Samy Tindel , Maylis Varvenne

This paper provides a precise error analysis for the maximum likelihood estimate $\hat{a}_{\text{ML}}(u_1^n)$ of the parameter $a$ given samples $u_1^n = (u_1, \ldots, u_n)'$ drawn from a nonstationary Gauss-Markov process $U_i = a U_{i-1}…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-03-29 Peida Tian , Victoria Kostina

In this short note we will provide a sufficient and necessary condition to have uniqueness of the location of the maximum of a stochastic process over an interval. The result will also express the mean value of the location in terms of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-03 Leandro P. R. Pimentel

We derive P(M,t_m), the joint probability density of the maximum M and the time t_m at which this maximum is achieved for a class of constrained Brownian motions. In particular, we provide explicit results for excursions, meanders and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-10-31 Satya. N. Majumdar , Julien Randon-Furling , Michael J. Kearney , Marc Yor

We study the problem of parameter estimation using maximum likelihood for fast/slow systems of stochastic differential equations. Our aim is to shed light on the problem of model/data mismatch at small scales. We consider two classes of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-06-20 A. Papavasiliou , G. A. Pavliotis , A. M. Stuart

Gaussian process regression underpins countless academic and industrial applications of machine learning and statistics, with maximum likelihood estimation routinely used to select appropriate parameters for the covariance kernel. However,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-26 Toni Karvonen , Chris J. Oates

We investigate here the Central Limit Theorem of the Increment Ratio Statistic of a multifractional Brownian motion, leading to a CLT for the time varying Hurst index. The proofs are quite simple relying on Breuer-Major theorems and an…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-27 Pierre R. Bertrand , Mehdi Fhima , Arnaud Guillin

The paper studies asymptotic properties of estimators of multidimensional stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motions from high-frequency discrete data. Consistency and central limit properties of a class of estimators of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-07 Arnab Ganguly

This article describes a multivariate polynomial regression method where the uncertainty of the input parameters are approximated with Gaussian distributions, derived from the central limit theorem for large weighted sums, directly from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-10-04 Peter Kovesarki , Ian C. Brock

We present an approximate calculation for the distribution of the maximum of a smooth stationary temporal signal X(t). As an application, we compute the persistence exponent associated to the probability that the process remains below a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Clément Sire

Given a standard Brownian motion $B^{\mu}=(B_t^{\mu})_{0\le t\le T}$ with drift $\mu \in \mathbb{R}$ and letting $S_t^{\mu}=\max_{0\le s\le t}B_s^{\mu}$ for $0\le t\le T$, we consider the optimal prediction problem: \[V=\inf_{0\le \tau \le…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 J. du Toit , G. Peskir

Let $T>0,\alpha>\frac12$. In the present paper we consider the $\alpha$-Brownian bridge defined as $dX_t=-\alpha\frac{X_t}{T-t}dt+dW_t,~ 0\leq t< T$, where $W$ is a standard Brownian motion. We investigate the optimal rate of convergence to…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-01 Khalifa Es-Sebaiy , Jabrane Moustaaid

We obtain a Berry-Esseen type bound for the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameter for fractional Ornstein-uhlenbeck type process driven by sub-fractional Brownian motion.

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-21 B. L. S. Prakasa Rao

Motivated by recent works on the high-dimensional logistic regression, we establish that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate exhibits a phase transition for a wide range of generalized linear models with binary outcome and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-18 Wenpin Tang , Yuting Ye

Consider the following stochastic differential equation for $(X_t)_{t\ge 0}$ on $\mathbb R^d$ and its Euler-Maruyama (EM) approximation $(Y_{t_n})_{n\in \mathbb Z^+}$: \begin{align*} &d X_t=b( X_t) d t+\sigma(X_t) d B_t, \\ &…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-03 Xiang Li , Feng-Yu Wang , Lihu Xu

We consider the problem of efficient estimation of the drift parameter of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process driven by a L\'{e}vy process when high-frequency observations are given. The estimator is constructed from the time-continuous…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-13 Hilmar Mai