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Uncertainty estimation in large deep-learning models is a computationally challenging task, where it is difficult to form even a Gaussian approximation to the posterior distribution. In such situations, existing methods usually resort to a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-15 Aaron Mishkin , Frederik Kunstner , Didrik Nielsen , Mark Schmidt , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

We introduce Support Decomposition Variational Inference (SDVI), a new variational inference (VI) approach for probabilistic programs with stochastic support. Existing approaches to this problem rely on designing a single global variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Tim Reichelt , Luke Ong , Tom Rainforth

In this paper we propose and analyze a novel multilevel version of Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD). SVGD is a recent particle based variational inference method. For Bayesian inverse problems with computationally expensive…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-05 Simon Weissmann , Jakob Zech

Several recent works have explored stochastic gradient methods for variational inference that exploit the geometry of the variational-parameter space. However, the theoretical properties of these methods are not well-understood and these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-15 Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Reza Babanezhad , Wu Lin , Mark Schmidt , Masashi Sugiyama

We construct flexible likelihoods for multi-output Gaussian process models that leverage neural networks as components. We make use of sparse variational inference methods to enable scalable approximate inference for the resulting class of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-03 Martin Jankowiak , Jacob Gardner

Variational inference is a scalable technique for approximate Bayesian inference. Deriving variational inference algorithms requires tedious model-specific calculations; this makes it difficult to automate. We propose an automatic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-15 Alp Kucukelbir , Rajesh Ranganath , Andrew Gelman , David M. Blei

Variational inference is a popular method for estimating model parameters and conditional distributions in hierarchical and mixed models, which arise frequently in many settings in the health, social, and biological sciences. Variational…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-10 Ted Westling , Tyler H. McCormick

A recent novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes handles heterogeneous outputs assuming that each output has its own likelihood function. It uses a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model all likelihoods' parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-15 Juan-José Giraldo , Mauricio A. Álvarez

Selective inference aims at providing valid inference after a data-driven selection of models or hypotheses. It is essential to avoid overconfident results and replicability issues. While significant advances have been made in this area for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Matteo D'Alessandro , Magne Thoresen

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a popular algorithm for optimization problems arising in high-dimensional inference tasks. Here one produces an estimator of an unknown parameter from independent samples of data by iteratively…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-23 Gerard Ben Arous , Reza Gheissari , Aukosh Jagannath

Variational approaches to approximate Bayesian inference provide very efficient means of performing parameter estimation and model selection. Among these, so-called variational-Laplace or VL schemes rely on Gaussian approximations to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-17 Jean Daunizeau

Stochastic natural gradient variational inference (NGVI) is a popular and efficient algorithm for Bayesian inference. Despite empirical success, the convergence of this method is still not fully understood. In this work, we define and study…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Thomas Guilmeau , Hadrien Hendrikx , Florence Forbes

Stochastic variational inference makes it possible to approximate posterior distributions induced by large datasets quickly using stochastic optimization. The algorithm relies on the use of fully factorized variational distributions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-27 Matthew D. Hoffman , David M. Blei

We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities, e.g., for applications…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-10 Anoop Korattikara , Vivek Rathod , Kevin Murphy , Max Welling

Recent progress in deep latent variable models has largely been driven by the development of flexible and scalable variational inference methods. Variational training of this type involves maximizing a lower bound on the log-likelihood,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-02 Andriy Mnih , Danilo J. Rezende

Variable selection for Gaussian process models is often done using automatic relevance determination, which uses the inverse length-scale parameter of each input variable as a proxy for variable relevance. This implicitly determined…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-24 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Michael Riis Andersen , Aki Vehtari

Models with a large number of latent variables are often used to fully utilize the information in big or complex data. However, they can be difficult to estimate using standard approaches, and variational inference methods are a popular…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 Rubén Loaiza-Maya , Michael Stanley Smith , David J. Nott , Peter J. Danaher

We propose a new Bayesian Neural Net formulation that affords variational inference for which the evidence lower bound is analytically tractable subject to a tight approximation. We achieve this tractability by (i) decomposing ReLU…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-13 Manuel Haussmann , Fred A. Hamprecht , Melih Kandemir

We develop stochastic variational inference, a scalable algorithm for approximating posterior distributions. We develop this technique for a large class of probabilistic models and we demonstrate it with two probabilistic topic models,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-04-24 Matt Hoffman , David M. Blei , Chong Wang , John Paisley

We consider the problem of sampling from a target distribution, which is \emph {not necessarily logconcave}, in the context of empirical risk minimization and stochastic optimization as presented in Raginsky et al. (2017). Non-asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-03 Ngoc Huy Chau , Éric Moulines , Miklos Rásonyi , Sotirios Sabanis , Ying Zhang