Related papers: Bayesian priors and nuisance parameters

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are used to model dynamic systems appearing in engineering, physics, biomedical sciences and many other fields. These equations contain unknown parameters, say $\theta$ of physical significance which…

In this paper, we use The Quijote simulations in order to extract the cosmological parameters through Bayesian Neural Networks. This kind of model has a remarkable ability to estimate the associated uncertainty, which is one of the ultimate…

Bayesian inference provides a principled way of estimating the parameters of a stochastic process that is observed discretely in time. The overdamped Brownian motion of a particle confined in an optical trap is generally modelled by the…

Bayesian Model Calibration is used to revisit the problem of scaling factor calibration for semi-empirical correction of ab initio calculations. A particular attention is devoted to uncertainty evaluation for scaling factors, and to their…

Time series with multiple periodically correlated components is a complex problem with comparatively limited prior research. Most existing time series models are designed to accommodate simple periodically correlated components and tend to…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Fitting models to data using Bayesian inference is quite common, but when each point in parameter space gives a curve, fitting the curve to a data set requires new nuisance parameters, which specify the metric embedding the one-dimensional…

Field experiments are often difficult and expensive to make. To bypass these issues, industrial companies have developed computational codes. These codes intend to be representative of the physical system, but come with a certain amount of…

This paper presents a Bayesian method for identification of jump Markov linear system parameters. A primary motivation is to provide accurate quantification of parameter uncertainty without relying on asymptotic in data-length arguments. To…

Filtered Poisson processes are often used as reference models for intermittent fluc- tuations in physical systems. Such a process is here extended by adding a noise term, either as a purely additive term to the process or as a dynamical…

Intuitively, a scientist might assume that a more complex regression model will necessarily yield a better predictive model of experimental data. Herein, we disprove this notion in the context of extracting the proton charge radius from…

Many computational algorithms applied to geometry operate on discrete representations of shape. It is sometimes necessary to first simplify, or coarsen, representations found in modern datasets for practicable or expedited processing. The…

Bayesian optimisation has proven to be a powerful tool for expensive global black-box optimisation problems. In this paper, we propose new Bayesian optimisation variants of the popular Knowledge Gradient acquisition functions for problems…

Bayesian inference is applied to the level fluctuations of two coupled microwave billiards in order to extract the coupling strength. The coupled resonators provide a model of a chaotic quantum system containing two coupled symmetry classes…

We propose a scalable variational Bayes method for statistical inference for a single or low-dimensional subset of the coordinates of a high-dimensional parameter in sparse linear regression. Our approach relies on assigning a mean-field…

All 21-cm signal experiments rely on electronic receivers that affect the data via both multiplicative and additive biases through the receiver's gain and noise temperature. While experiments attempt to remove these biases, the residuals of…

The effect of correlations between model parameters and nuisance parameters is discussed, in the context of fitting model parameters to data. Modifications to the usual $\chi^2$ method are required. Fake data studies, as used at present,…

This study proposes a framework for estimating demand in differentiated product markets with high dimensional product characteristics, building upon the seminal Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) model, using market level data. We allow for…

We use Bayesian component estimation methods to examine the prospects for large-scale polarized map and cosmological parameter estimation with simulated Planck data assuming simplified white noise properties. The sky signal is parametrized…

A spectral approach to Bayesian inference is presented. It pursues the emulation of the posterior probability density. The starting point is a series expansion of the likelihood function in terms of orthogonal polynomials. From this…