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This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 G. D'Agostini

Classification and probability estimation are fundamental tasks with broad applications across modern machine learning and data science, spanning fields such as biology, medicine, engineering, and computer science. Recent development of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-25 Liyun Zeng , Hao Helen Zhang

We present BKP, a user-friendly and extensible R package that implements the Beta Kernel Process (BKP) -- a fully nonparametric and computationally efficient framework for modeling spatially varying binomial probabilities. The BKP model…

Computation · Statistics 2025-09-16 Jiangyan Zhao , Kunhai Qing , Jin Xu

Bootstrap is commonly used as a tool for non-parametric statistical inference to estimate meaningful parameters in Variable Selection Models. However, for massive dataset that has exponential growth rate, the computation of Bootstrap…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-26 Zhibing He , Yichen Qin , Ben-Chang Shia , Yang Li

This contribution presents a guide to the R package multilevLCA, which offers a complete and innovative set of technical tools for the latent class analysis of single-level and multilevel categorical data. We describe the available model…

Computation · Statistics 2024-04-11 Johan Lyrvall , Roberto Di Mari , Zsuzsa Bakk , Jennifer Oser , Jouni Kuha

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

In this paper, we consider a Bayesian bi-level variable selection problem in high-dimensional regressions. In many practical situations, it is natural to assign group membership to each predictor. Examples include that genetic variants can…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-29 Mingxuan Cai , Mingwei Dai , Jingsi Ming , Heng Peng , Jin Liu , Can Yang

Bayesian paradigm takes advantage of well fitting complicated survival models and feasible computing in survival analysis owing to the superiority in tackling the complex censoring scheme, compared with the frequentist paradigm. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-10 Chong Zhong , Zhihua Ma , Junshan Shen , Catherine Liu

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stefan T. Radev , Ulf K. Mertens , Andreas Voss , Lynton Ardizzone , Ullrich Köthe

Gaussian processes (GPs) are well-known tools for modeling dependent data with applications in spatial statistics, time series analysis, or econometrics. In this article, we present the R package varycoef that implements estimation,…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-07 Jakob A. Dambon , Fabio Sigrist , Reinhard Furrer

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for sampling from an approximate posterior distribution in the presence of a computationally intractable likelihood function. A common implementation is based on simulating model,…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-16 D. Prangle , M. G. B. Blum , G. Popovic , S. A. Sisson

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are applicable to statistical models specified by generative processes with analytically intractable likelihoods. These methods try to approximate the posterior density of a model parameter by…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-11 Sanjay Chaudhuri , Subhroshekhar Ghosh , Kim Cuc Pham

The past decade has seen an explosion of research in causal mediation analysis. However, most analytic tools developed so far rely on frequentist methods which may not be robust in the case of small sample sizes. In this paper, we propose a…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-19 Belay B Yimer , Mark Lunt , Marcus Beasley , Gary J Macfarlane , John McBeth

Probit unfolding models (PUMs) are a novel class of scaling models that allow for items with both monotonic and non-monotonic response functions and have shown great promise in the estimation of preferences from voting data in various…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-02 Skylar Shi , Abel Rodriguez , Rayleigh Lei

Motivated by big data and the vast parameter spaces in modern machine learning models, optimisation approaches to Bayesian inference have seen a surge in popularity in recent years. In this paper, we address the connection between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-18 Lachlan Astfalck , Cassandra Bird , Daniel Williamson

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Scientific theories can often be formulated using equality and order constraints on the relative effects in a linear regression model. For example, it may be expected that the effect of the first predictor is larger than the effect of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-01 Joris Mulder , Anton Olsson-Collentine

Variational inference provides approximations to the computationally intractable posterior distribution in Bayesian networks. A prominent medical application of noisy-or Bayesian network is to infer potential diseases given observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-23 Yusheng Xie , Nan Du , Wei Fan , Jing Zhai , Weicheng Zhu

Large networks of queueing systems model important real-world systems such as MapReduce clusters, web-servers, hospitals, call centers and airport passenger terminals. To model such systems accurately, we must infer queueing parameters from…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-20 Anthony Ebert , Paul Wu , Kerrie Mengersen , Fabrizio Ruggeri

In probabilistic (Bayesian) inferences, we typically want to compute properties of the posterior distribution, describing knowledge of unknown quantities in the context of a particular dataset and the assumed prior information. The marginal…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-03 Brendon J. Brewer , Daniel Foreman-Mackey