English
Related papers

Related papers: Probabilistic structure discovery in time series d…

200 papers

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Zhijie Deng , Yucen Luo , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

When constructing a Bayesian Machine Learning model, we might be faced with multiple different prior distributions and thus are required to properly consider them in a sensible manner in our model. While this situation is reasonably well…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-20 Sarem Seitz

We introduce a conceptually novel structured prediction model, GPstruct, which is kernelized, non-parametric and Bayesian, by design. We motivate the model with respect to existing approaches, among others, conditional random fields (CRFs),…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-07-16 Sebastien Bratieres , Novi Quadrianto , Zoubin Ghahramani

This paper derives practical algorithms, based on Bayesian inference methods, for several data analysis problems common in time series analysis of astronomical and other data. One problem is the determination of the lag between two time…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-20 Jeffrey D. Scargle

In order to scale standard Gaussian process (GP) regression to large-scale datasets, aggregation models employ factorized training process and then combine predictions from distributed experts. The state-of-the-art aggregation models,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-05 Haitao Liu , Jianfei Cai , Yi Wang , Yew-Soon Ong

We consider the problem of recovering the causal structure underlying observations from different experimental conditions when the targets of the interventions in each experiment are unknown. We assume a linear structural causal model with…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-13 Juan L. Gamella , Armeen Taeb , Christina Heinze-Deml , Peter Bühlmann

This paper focuses on causal structure estimation from time series data in which measurements are obtained at a coarser timescale than the causal timescale of the underlying system. Previous work has shown that such subsampling can lead to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-07-14 Antti Hyttinen , Sergey Plis , Matti Järvisalo , Frederick Eberhardt , David Danks

Gaussian Process Regression is a popular nonparametric regression method based on Bayesian principles that provides uncertainty estimates for its predictions. However, these estimates are of a Bayesian nature, whereas for some important…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-09 Christian Fiedler , Carsten W. Scherer , Sebastian Trimpe

We present a Bayesian approach to machine learning with probabilistic programs. In our approach, training on available data is implemented as inference on a hierarchical model. The posterior distribution of model parameters is then used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 David Tolpin

We study the Bayesian model averaging approach to learning Bayesian network structures (DAGs) from data. We develop new algorithms including the first algorithm that is able to efficiently sample DAGs according to the exact structure…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-01-20 Ru He , Jin Tian , Huaiqing Wu

A method to reconstruct fields, source strengths and physical parameters based on Gaussian process regression is presented for the case where data are known to fulfill a given linear differential equation with localized sources. The…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-09-10 Christopher G. Albert

Structured sparsity has recently emerged in statistics, machine learning and signal processing as a promising paradigm for learning in high-dimensional settings. All existing methods for learning under the assumption of structured sparsity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-16 Nino Shervashidze , Francis Bach

Parameter identification and comparison of dynamical systems is a challenging task in many fields. Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian process regression over time-series data have been successfully applied to infer the parameters of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Philippe Wenk , Alkis Gotovos , Stefan Bauer , Nico Gorbach , Andreas Krause , Joachim M. Buhmann

Kernel methods are one of the mainstays of machine learning, but the problem of kernel learning remains challenging, with only a few heuristics and very little theory. This is of particular importance in methods based on estimation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-03 Seth Flaxman , Dino Sejdinovic , John P. Cunningham , Sarah Filippi

One of the most challenging tasks when adopting Bayesian Networks (BNs) is the one of learning their structure from data. This task is complicated by the huge search space of possible solutions, and by the fact that the problem is NP-hard.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-08-07 Stefano Beretta , Mauro Castelli , Ivo Goncalves , Roberto Henriques , Daniele Ramazzotti

State-of-the-art neural network-based methods for learning summary statistics have delivered promising results for simulation-based likelihood-free parameter inference. Existing approaches require density estimation as a post-processing…

Bayesian inference on structured models typically relies on the ability to infer posterior distributions of underlying hidden variables. However, inference in implicit models or complex posterior distributions is hard. A popular tool for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-16 Theofanis Karaletsos

Much of the causal discovery literature prioritises guaranteeing the identifiability of causal direction in statistical models. For structures within a Markov equivalence class, this requires strong assumptions which may not hold in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-29 Anish Dhir , Samuel Power , Mark van der Wilk

Small disturbances can trigger functional breakdowns in complex systems. A challenging task is to infer the structural cause of a disturbance in a networked system, soon enough to prevent a catastrophe. We present a graph neural network…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-06-11 Edward Laurence , Charles Murphy , Guillaume St-Onge , Xavier Roy-Pomerleau , Vincent Thibeault

The inference of deep hierarchical models is problematic due to strong dependencies between the hierarchies. We investigate a specific transformation of the model parameters based on the multivariate distributional transform. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-12 Jakob Knollmüller , Torsten A. Enßlin