English
Related papers

Related papers: Probabilistic structure discovery in time series d…

200 papers

Despite recent advances in automated machine learning, model selection is still a complex and computationally intensive process. For Gaussian processes (GPs), selecting the kernel is a crucial task, often done manually by the expert.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Matthias Bitzer , Mona Meister , Christoph Zimmer

Gaussian process regression is widely applied in computational science and engineering for surrogate modeling owning to its kernel-based and probabilistic nature. In this work, we propose a Bayesian approach that integrates the variability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Dongwei Ye , Weihao Yan , Christoph Brune , Mengwu Guo

Gaussian process regression is widely used because of its ability to provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and handle small or sparse datasets. However, it struggles with high-dimensional data. One possible way to scale this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-02 Bernardo Fichera , Viacheslav Borovitskiy , Andreas Krause , Aude Billard

Substantial research on structured sparsity has contributed to analysis of many different applications. However, there have been few Bayesian procedures among this work. Here, we develop a Bayesian model for structured sparsity that uses a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-09 Barbara E. Engelhardt , Ryan P. Adams

Inference in popular nonparametric Bayesian models typically relies on sampling or other approximations. This paper presents a general methodology for constructing novel tractable nonparametric Bayesian methods by applying the kernel trick…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-08-15 Ferenc Huszár , Simon Lacoste-Julien

We introduce a methodology for nonlinear inverse problems using a variational Bayesian approach where the unknown quantity is a spatial field. A structured Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model is used both to construct a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-20 Steven Atkinson , Nicholas Zabaras

Bayesian methods for learning Gaussian graphical models offer a principled framework for quantifying model uncertainty and incorporating prior knowledge. However, their scalability is constrained by the computational cost of jointly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-28 Reza Mohammadi , Marit Schoonhoven , Lucas Vogels , S. Ilker Birbil

Deep Gaussian Processes learn probabilistic data representations for supervised learning by cascading multiple Gaussian Processes. While this model family promises flexible predictive distributions, exact inference is not tractable.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-23 Jakob Lindinger , David Reeb , Christoph Lippert , Barbara Rakitsch

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Karl Friston , Thomas Parr , Peter Zeidman

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-11 Thomas Beckers

We propose a network structure discovery model for continuous observations that generalizes linear causal models by incorporating a Gaussian process (GP) prior on a network-independent component, and random sparsity and weight matrices as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-01 Amir Dezfouli , Edwin V. Bonilla , Richard Nock

Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Yuta Shikuri

We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian Structural Inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar HMM (uHMM) topologies for inference of process…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-04-23 Christopher C. Strelioff , James P. Crutchfield

In recent years there has been a flurry of works on learning Bayesian networks from data. One of the hard problems in this area is how to effectively learn the structure of a belief network from incomplete data- that is, in the presence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-01 Nir Friedman

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

Inference on high-dimensional parameters in structured linear models is an important statistical problem. This paper focuses on the case of a piecewise polynomial Gaussian sequence model, and we develop a new empirical Bayes solution that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-04 Chang Liu , Ryan Martin , Weining Shen

In the study of networked systems such as biological, technological, and social networks the available data are often uncertain. Rather than knowing the structure of a network exactly, we know the connections between nodes only with a…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-01-20 Travis Martin , Brian Ball , M. E. J. Newman

Forecasting in probabilistic time series is a complex endeavor that extends beyond predicting future values to also quantifying the uncertainty inherent in these predictions. Gaussian process regression stands out as a Bayesian machine…

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal

We develop a generative model-based approach to Bayesian inverse problems, such as image reconstruction from noisy and incomplete images. Our framework addresses two common challenges of Bayesian reconstructions: 1) It makes use of complex,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-24 Vanessa Böhm , François Lanusse , Uroš Seljak